Sam Houston State vs. North Texas prediction and odds for NIT second round

Nov 23, 2022; Fort Myers, Florida, USA; Sam Houston State Bearkats forward Cameron Huefner (25) drives past South Dakota Coyotes forward Felix Brostrom (33) in the second half during the Fort Myers Tip-Off Palms Division championship game at Suncoast Credit Union Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports /

Sam Houston State is in Denton, Texas at The Super Pit for NIT second round action.

These are two similar teams that play slow and pride themselves on their intense ball pressure. You can see that these are defensive minded teams by the incredibly low total of 116, yet the Mean Green are laying over two buckets against Sam Houston State. Is that warranted?

Here are the odds and our best bet for this NIT matchup:

Sam Houston State vs. North Texas odds, spread and total

Sam Houston State vs. North Texas prediction and pick

These two teams played last season, a 65-55 win for UNT at home, but this Sam Houston State team is far better and should be able to avoid falling down 20 in the first half to the Mean Green.

Both teams are top 30 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating and are loose with the ball, meaning that this game is going to future a lot of turnovers and contact underneath. These two defenses play in your face, physical defense, each sporting an opponent free throw rate outside the top 300.

The key for Sam Houston State to stay within the number in a matchup that should have few possessions given that each team is outside the top 300 in adjusted tempo is to cash in from the perimeter. The team is 12th in the country in 3-point percentage and needs to take advantage given that North Texas is top 10 in the nation in two-point percentage allowed.

While I lean towards the home team advancing, Sam Houston State has the defense to keep them in this game, and with a total this low I don’t expect either offense to run away from this one. North Texas is great at generating second chances, 30th in the country in offensive rebounding rate, but SHSU can limit them to one chance with the 51st best defensive rebounding percentage nationally.

These two teams are too similar that I’m inclined to take the points.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.