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North Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction and odds for NIT quarterfinal

By Reed Wallach

Mar 10, 2023; Frisco, TX, USA; North Texas Mean Green guard Tylor Perry (5) scores a layup against UAB Blazers guard Tavin Lovan (3) during the second half at Ford Center at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports
Mar 10, 2023; Frisco, TX, USA; North Texas Mean Green guard Tylor Perry (5) scores a layup against UAB Blazers guard Tavin Lovan (3) during the second half at Ford Center at The Star. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-USA TODAY Sports /
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North Texas and Oklahoma State each rolled in the second round of NIT action over the weekend, setting up a quarterfinals matchup between two elite defenses.

The Mean Green are paced by Conference USA Player of the Year Tylor Perry as they look to win in Stillwater, Oklahoma and advance to the NIT semifinals next week. The Pokes narrowly missed the NCAA Tournament, but have the defense to beat any team in the field, can they cover as small home favorites?

Here are the odds:

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State odds, spread and total

North Texas vs. Oklahoma State prediction and pick

This is going to be a physical, defensive minded matchup, evident in the low total of 122, which makes me think the underdog is likely to stay within the two possession spread.

The Mean Green defense is top 10 nationally in effective field goal percentage allowed and top 75 in generating turnovers, a key part to slowing down a sloppy Oklahoma State offense that is 321st in turnover percentage. The Pokes are reliant in getting to the rim and generating second chances, they shoot 31% from beyond the arc, but the disciplined UNT defense shuts down the interior with their ball pressure defense.

While the Mean Green foul at an alarming rate, the team has a 40% free throw allowed rate this season, Oklahoma State won’t make them pay, the team shoots 69% as a team from the free throw line.

On the other side, North Texas is reliant on taking three’s and keeping possessions alive with their offensive rebounding. The team is 72nd in three-point rate and hits them at an efficient 36.4% (57th best in the country). Oklahoma State has a stout defense, 13th in effective field goal percentage, but they are vulnerable on the defensive glass, right around the national average in defensive rebounding rate.

In a defensive minded affair, I’ll side with the underdog given the pace should be slow and North Texas has the three-point shooting to stay within ear shot.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.