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Best NBA Prop Bets Today for Warriors vs. Mavericks (Trust Luka, Fade Curry)

By Joseph Summers

Nov 29, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) looks to score as Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) defends during the second half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Nov 29, 2022; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) looks to score as Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) defends during the second half at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Warriors and Mavs square off tonight for the third time this year, with both teams needing a win to maintain playoff positioning in the final weeks of the regular season.

Steph Curry and Luka Dončić both had huge games in the first meeting, though I’m expecting a step back from at least one of these two stars.

Let’s check out my favorite prop bets as we gear up for a critical Western Conference clash.

Warriors vs. Mavericks Best Prop Bets

  • Stephen Curry UNDER 29.5 Points (-105)
  • Luka Dončić OVER 7.5 Assists (-140)

Stephen Curry UNDER 29.5 Points (-105)

It’s never fun betting against Curry, but the Mavs have been a uniquely difficult matchup for him. In his last seven games against Dallas, he’s eclipsed 27 points just once.

Over the last 15 games, Dallas allows only 23.61 points per game to the point guard position, so Curry’s poor performances against the Mavs are no fluke.

As a cherry on top, the game is in Dallas. Golden State is one of the league’s worst road teams, ranking 27th in net rating (-6.7) in the NBA. As a result, we’ve got an increased likelihood that Curry sits late in a blowout loss.

Is it possible Curry goes scorched-Earth and demolishes this prop? Certainly. Is it likely? No, thus I’ll take the value on the inflated line.

Luka Dončić OVER 7.5 Assists (-140)

Don’t let the juice scare you – this is a slam-dunk bet. In his two meetings against the Warriors this season, Luka posted 12 and nine assists. He averages eight per game on the season, and Golden State’s defense typically lets players like Luka operate as playmakers.

In the last 15 games, the Warriors allow the third-most assists per game (9.86) to point guards. Dallas’ offense flows through Luka, so I have faith he’ll be slinging the ball to open shooters tonight once again.

Having cleared this number in eight of his last 12 contests vs. Golden State, Luka is in a prime spot to deliver once again.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 

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