Valero Texas Open picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Valero Texas Open picks and best bets for the 2023 trip to TPC San Antonio as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

Thank Gamblor, thank the heavens, thank everything that the Valero Texas Open is the return to stroke play as we got absolutely crushed in Austin at the Match Play. Now it’s time for the trip to TPC San Antonio and, though the field is headlined weakly by Tyrrell Hatton, Rickie Fowler, Corey Conners, Hideki Matsuyama and so on, it’s a reprieve for our PGA Tour expert picks.

It was carnage for our picks and best bets in Austin for the Match Play, which can happen. The best result of the week was a push in a Wednesday match between Keith Mitchell and Billy Horschel, which was then accompanied by four losses. Not great, Bob. So the Valero Texas Open picks need to get us on the right track before The Masters.

What do we have for our Valero Texas Open picks? We’ve got some data-driven winners here as we go through our PGA Tour expert picks and best bets for this week’s action at TPC San Antonio.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Match Play: 17-41-2, -3.644 units (0-12 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | -3.5 units at Match Play)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $1,759,953.22 (Collin Morikawa at Match Play, $166,000)

PGA Tour expert picks for Valero Texas Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 Pick for the Valero Texas Open: Tyrrell Hatton (+165, DraftKings)

Tyrrell Hatton is installed as the favorite at TPC San Antonio and, despite not winning his group and seemingly having a minor hand/wrist ailment. That does concern me mildly, but not all too much. Hatton has been white-hot in stroke play, registering Top 5 finishes at the API and THE PLAYERS, which were designated events with loaded fields. Now, with the way he’s ball striking and with +165 odds for a Top 10, I love him to get it done this week against lesser competition.

Pick to Win the Valero Texas Open (0.5 Units): Rickie Fowler (+2000)

Maybe I’m buying way too much into narrative here, but I don’t care. Point blank, Rickie Fowler needs to win this tournament to get into The Masters. So why not back him to do just that? Fowler has been showing a long-awaited return to form in 2023, ranking 25th in the FedExCup Standings with three Top 10 finishes to his credit. More importantly, he’s trending up with his Good Drive Percentage and is 10th on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach this season. I love his chances, especially with a win-or-don’t-go-to-Augusta mentality.

One and Done Pick for Valero Texas Open: Rickie Fowler

Even if Fowler doesn’t end up hoisting the trophy this week and booking a flight to Augusta, he’s going to be in the mix this week. TPC San Antonio should suit him well and, with the needed big finish this week, I expect him to be near the top of the leaderboard at worst and cash out nicely for the One and Done pick.

Valero Texas Open picks and best bets

Brendon Todd to finish Top 20 (+240)

Because of the way that TPC San Antonio typically levels the playing field in terms of driving distance, it’s not a shock that Brendon Todd finished T8 here a year ago. Though we haven’t heard a whole lot from him this year, he’s gaining 0.28 strokes on approach this season and is Top 50 this season in Good Drive Percentage. He also quietly has three Top 10 finishes and has been gaining more than 0.5 strokes putting on the season. At these odds for a Top 20, I like his chances.

Charley Hoffman to finish Top 40 (+200)

The Valero Texas Open might as well be a home game for Charley Hoffman. Last year was the first time in 16 tries he’d missed the cut at TPC San Antonio and he also has a win and two second-place finishes in the past six years. His play this season hasn’t been good overall, but he’s still gaining strokes on approach, which is key at this place. Now returning to a place where he has all the good vibes, a Top 40 feels like a good way to attack this and, given that he missed the cut in Puntacana, we should get a favorable number too.

Aaron Rai to finish Top 20 (+225, DraftKings)

Absolutely in love with the value for Aaron Rai to just finish Top 20 this week — so much so that I almost had him as the Top 10 pick for the Valero Texas Open. Rai would’ve been Top 20 last year if for not shooting 1-over on Sunday. But he played well and now ranks 12th on the PGA Tour this season in Good Drive Percentage in addition to gaining strokes on approach as well. With a T19 at THE PLAYERS in his last start, this is arguably my favorite bet of the week.

Longshot pick to win the Valero Texas Open: Akshay Bhatia (+10000)

In case you haven’t figured it out, I’m very much looking at Good Drive Percentage and approach this season. Well, Bhatia is really rounding into form there, ranking first this season on the PGA Tour in Good Drive Percentage in addition to gaining more than 0.28 strokes overall on approach. After flirting with a 59 one day at Puntacana, getting 100/1 for him to win or good odds for a solid finish makes a ton of sense.

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