March Madness: Why each women’s Final Four team can win it all

March Madness is down to just four teams. Here’s how each team could end up emerging from the Final Four as national champions.

It’s Final Four time, y’all! Just four squads remain in the quest to win the women’s college basketball title, with LSU and Virginia Tech meeting Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET, followed at 9:00 p.m. ET by the big game: South Carolina vs. Iowa. The last two Naismith winners, SC’s Aliyah Boston and Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, facing off.

Why each of the remaining Final Four teams can cut down the nets on Sunday:

South Carolina: They’re the best team

The Gamecocks come into this one as the clear favorites. FanDuel Sportsbook, for example, has South Carolina at -290 to win the title; LSU is second at +600. And a quick glance at the numbers show us why SC is so heavily favored.

The 36-0 Gamecocks lead the nation in offensive rating, scoring 114.4 points per 100 possessions. They’re second in defensive rating, allowing 73.3 points per 100 possession. That gives SC the nation’s best net rating at +41.1.

And they haven’t done this by playing cupcakes. SC’s opponent average win percentage is 62 percent, giving the Gamecocks the seventh-toughest schedule by that metric. They just had so many big wins this season — a 25-point win over Maryland, an overtime victory over Stanford, plus wins in non-conference against UCLA and UConn.

The Gamecocks also played two of those aforementioned teams again during the tournament. It can be hard to beat a team twice, but SC beat UCLA and Maryland by double-digits last weekend.

This team’s just so talented. Aliyah Boston gets the most attention, but Zia Cooke and Brea Beal are first-round WNBA talents as well. The defense is just so dominant, and while shutting down Caitlin Clark will be tough, shutting down the rest of the Iowa team won’t be as tough.

Iowa: Never underestimate Caitlin Clark

Here’s the thing about Iowa: they’ve got a very tough matchup on Friday night against South Carolina, but they also have Caitlin Clark, who scored 41 points along with 10 rebounds and 12 assists in the Elite Eight win over Louisville.

Clark’s the most electrifying player in the country. No one left in this tournament can take over a game offensively like Clark can, and while her scoring ability — and, in particular, her shooting ability — get the most attention, she’s also a gifted playmaker.

I can’t say I’m not worried that teammate Monika Czinano will get shut down by Aliyah Boston. Boston could very easily neutralize her, forcing Clark to carry the team to an even larger degree. But Clark’s gravity could also help open things up for Iowa. SC might have a top-scoring defense, but they haven’t played someone like Clark yet. The closest has been when they faced Angel Reese, but Reese is a much more inside-oriented player. SC stopping Reese doesn’t mean SC will stop Clark.

LSU: We were wrong about the Tigers

Coming into this tournament, I didn’t believe in LSU. They only lost twice all year, but they played one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the country. This tournament has changed my mind on that, with a 24-point win over Michigan and the fact they held Utah to 63 points, well below the 82.8 per game the Utes average.

The thing is, it was hard to get a read on LSU because that non-conference schedule really was weak. The only major conference team they played in non-conference was Oregon State, and while the Beavers are a solid team, it’s not like LSU was getting tested in the same way that South Carolina was getting tested. And when LSU did have a big test, facing South Carolina back in February, the Gamecocks won by 24.

But like I said in the first paragraph of this section, LSU’s tournament run is quieting my concerns. Holding both Michigan and Miami to 42 points shows how good this defense is — they have the fifth-best defensive rating in the country and while the weak early schedule plays into that, you don’t just luck into being that good on that end.

Also, Angel Reese is a star. She had 34 points against Hawaii to open the tournament and while her scoring numbers have dipped in each successive game, she’s still a huge threat. She can also create second-chance opportunities, like when she pulled down 14 offensive rebounds against Michigan.

In fact, Reese’s offensive rebounding is outlier good. There have been 48 instances this season of a player pulling down double-digit offensive boards. Only five players have done it more than once. Reese has done it seven times, which is four more times than anyone else.

Virginia Tech: Consistency matters

Iowa, LSU and South Carolina all have something they’re elite at. Virginia Tech…not so much. The Hokies don’t rank top five in offensive or defensive rating, but they have been a really consistent team, playing good ball on both ends. They rank 22nd in offensive rating and 29th in defensive rating, which gives them the 12th-best net rating in Division I. Maybe that’s not at the level of South Carolina, but it’s a good number.

The thing about Virginia Tech is that they might not do anything at an elite level, but as a whole, they’re one of the best teams in the country because they do everything well. The Hokies are 13th in points per scoring attempt. They hold opponents to the 34th-lowest points per scoring attempt.

Elizabeth Kitley has been one of the best bigs in the country, averaging 18.2 points and 10.7 rebounds per game. Kitley isn’t as strong as Aliyah Boston, but she’s got really good touch, shooting 72.1 percent at the rim, which ranks in the 93rd percentile per CBB Analytics. She’s good enough to cause a lot of matchup issues against whatever team she faces.

So while the Hokies might seem like the least-likely team to win the title, never count out a 31-4 team that survived the gauntlet of the ACC and handled Ohio State really handily in the Elite Eight.

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