March Madness: 3 predictions for FAU vs San Diego State Final Four

Florida Atlantic makes their Final Four debut Saturday against a fellow first-timer in San Diego State. Before then, lets head to the line for the and-one and look at three predictions for the game.

Parity.

By now, you’ve probably read or heard that word hundreds of times in relation to this year’s men’s NCAA Tournament. Saturday’s upcoming Final Four, which features a whopping total of zero No. 1, 2 or 3 seeds, underscores that parity. It’s the first Final Four where three teams make their national semifinal debut since 1970.

Perhaps the most intriguing matchup this weekend is its unlikeliest – No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State.

Saturday’s contest may be a clash of two beach teams from opposite coasts, but stylistically they’re more similar than different. No team left plays deeper lineups than both San Diego State and FAU. Each can go nine players deep, with as many in both teams’ rotations averaging at least 15 minutes. With all that in mind, let’s take a look at three predictions for the game.

Final Four predictions for FAU vs. San Diego State

Expect a low-scoring affair

Bear Bryant was the first to coin the phrase, “defense wins championships.” FAU and SDSU are hardly the first teams to prove Bryant right, but they are showing that the adage still holds water in the year of our Lord, 2023.

Florida Atlantic ranks 30th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency metric and 44th in scoring defense this season. The Owls have been impressive, not just because of their Cinderella run, but because of how they can shift styles from game to game. Prior to beating Kansas State in a high-scoring affair, FAU leaned on defense to beat No. 4 seed Tennessee, holding the Volunteers to 55 points.

In fact, the Owls have held opponents under 60 points 13 times this season. FAU held fellow NCAA Tournament qualifier NKU 52 points back in December and kept North Texas, who plays for the NIT Championship Thursday, under 65 points in both matchups with the Mean Green. That includes their 50-46 slugfest the Owls won earlier in the year.

Conversely, the ‘D’ in SDSU stands for defense.

The Aztecs and their head coach Brian Dutcher are known for their trademark, in-your-face press defense. They guard 94 feet for 40 minutes. And it achieves the desired results. San Diego State ranks 4th in KenPom’s defensive efficiency rating. Only Tennessee, UCLA and Alabama had a better mark this season.

That bodes well for San Diego State’s sudden National Title hopes. Nine of the past 10 champions ranked in the top seven in offensive or defensive efficiency in the KenPom ratings.

Much like their Final Four opponent, San Diego State has put the clamps on; they’ve held nine straight teams under 70 points and eight straight under 65 points. Three times during their romp to Houston, they’ve kept their opponents to 57 or fewer points.

Expect a low-scoring game Saturday in Houston.

Johnell Davis, rising star for FAU

Johnell Davis is only a sophomore. If you watch him play, you wouldn’t know that.

Davis, a native of Indiana, has become the latest small-school star to elevate himself on a national stage. In the Round of 32, Davis became the first player in NCAA Tournament history to post a stat line of 25 points, 10 rebounds, five steals and five assists. Against Kansas State, Davis chipped in 13 points, eight rebounds and six assists.

How Davis got to this stage is more impressive than his performances.

Davis grew up in Gary, Indiana. Much like other Midwest cities, Gary was once a bustling steel town. Now, it’s fallen on hard times, ranked as the most miserable city in the US in 2019. But Davis embodies the hard-working culture of his hometown. His former high school coach told Sporting News, “he’s been working his whole life…I know his work ethic.”

The 21st Century Charter School product exploded for a career-high 36 points against UAB in January and hasn’t slowed down since, scoring double-digits 13 times over FAU’s final 17 games in the regular season. Including the Conference USA tournament, Davis has eclipsed double-digits in seven-straight games.

There’s no reason to believe Davis will stop shining. Expect the FAU star to turn in another stellar performance Saturday.

Live by the 3…

Three-point shooting is all the rage these days.

Long-distance makes and attempts per game have increased across the board in college basketball for five-straight seasons. Under Dusty May, even Florida Atlantic has gotten in on that fun. The Owls rank 10th among NCAA Tournament squads in three-point makes per game and 5th in attempts.

Against Kansas State in the Elite Eight, FAU shot a robust 39% from distance and eclipsed 40% shooting 12 different times.

Here is where things get interesting, though – San Diego State is one of the country’s most prolific three-point defenses. Don’t believe me? Well, the numbers never lie.

The Aztecs rank 4th during the NCAA Tournament in three-point field goal defense. Entering the tournament, they were just as elite, ranking 9th nationally. Only four teams have shot above 38% from distance against San Diego State’s vaunted defense and they’ve held seven-straight teams under 30% from the arc. That includes stifling both No. 1 Alabama and No. 6 Creighton, holding them to season-worsts 11% and 18%, respectively.

Simply put: expect Saturday’s game to be won on the three-point line.

For more NCAA basketball and March Madness news, analysis, opinion and features, check out more from the FanSided college basketball section to stay on top of the latest action.