The Chicago Cubs were down by seven runs at one point, but ended up winning 14-9 over the Seattle Mariners. How did they pull it off?
Down 7-0 after the top of the second inning, MLB’s win probability suggested the Chicago Cubs had a 4.1% chance of beating the Seattle Mariners on Tuesday night. Yet, they prevailed, ultimately winning the 28-hit contest 14-9 in a thrilling game for their home crowd.
It was a win manager David Ross described as a “character win,” that he hadn’t felt like he had been a part of in a long time, according to Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic (subscription required).
How did they turn a seven-run deficit into a five-run win? Let’s take a look.
Cubs success was all about the third inning
This one really comes down almost entirely to the third inning. Going into the Cubs’ offensive frame, the score was 7-1 Seattle. A single by Dansby Swanson sparked the inning, which Trey Mancini paid off with a homer to drive him and Swanson in.
One thing that stands out is that the Cubs took advantage of Chris Flexen’s slower fastball, with both Swanson and Mancini hitting 91 MPH balls into play. Later, with the bases loaded, Nelson Velazquez also hit a fastball (92.1 MPH) out for a grand slam. He let two fastballs (91.6 MPH, 92.5 MPH) go by for balls before taking a 3-1 pitch he liked high in the zone. That would give Chicago the lead, 8-7.
Flexen’s 91.7 MPH fastball on average is slower than the average for right-handers with 100 or more pitches this season (93.85 MPH per Statcast). The Cubs waited for it to be in-location and saw it well.
The Mariners were forced to replace Flexen with Trevor Gott mid-inning after the grand slam, who threw fewer fastballs. Still, three of the four fastballs thrown were either balls or foul tips. In the third inning, 8 of the 12 fastballs the Cubs saw were either in play, balls, or foul tips.
Velazquez, in particular, is dealing with fastballs better this season than last, whiffing on 28.6% of them in 2023 compared to 31.7% in 2022. He has yet to strike out on a fastball this year after 29 such occurrences last year.
That third inning told the tale. The Cubs never looked back, including a two-run fifth inning and a three-run sixth to stave off the few runs Seattle put together.
The Cubs also replaced Hayden Wesneski early in the game. He was responsible for seven of the runs, the Cubs’ relief only allowed two from the second inning onward. Wesneski had an ERA of 7.5 in this contest.
Dansby Swanson injury update: David Ross explains why he left
Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson left the game after six innings. David Ross explained to reporters after the game that he was dealing with cramping, for now, attributed to simply a long day for personal reasons.
Swanson discussed his exit from the game with Patrick Mooney of The Athletic:
“Realistically, I felt like my body was just kind of done,” Swanson said. “I felt like doing anything more probably would have put me in harm’s way. The night was over for me. Pretty simple, probably haven’t eaten or slept or drank enough water over the past few days. I already started getting a lot of fluids in me and taking care of myself.”
Dansby opened up about his wife’s injury, as well, stating that he is “heartbroken for her,” and that the two will get through this together.
Swanson went 4-for-4 at the plate despite leaving early.