Which No. 10 seed has the best chance to advance to the playoffs, Thunder or Bulls?

A No. 10 seed has never made the NBA playoffs before. But the Chicago Bulls and Oklahoma City Thunder both have plausible paths toward victory.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are set to play against the reeling Minnesota Timberwolves Friday night, while the Chicago Bulls will take on the shaken Miami Heat. This is true win-or-go-home basketball, that buzzy feeling we chase every March with the college bracket.

The Play-in Tournament has already had its fair share of upsets, with Atlanta smoking a heavily favored Miami team and both No. 10 seeds beating their No. 9 seed counterparts. No No. 10 seed has ever advanced to the playoffs from the play-in before, but this year’s dime pieces aren’t your usual punching bags. So which team is going to the playoffs, and which will falter?

The case for the Chicago Bulls making the NBA Playoffs

The Bulls mounted a massive comeback against the Toronto Raptors Wednesday night, overcoming a 19-point deficit on the back of a scintillating Zach LaVine performance and some banshee shrieks. Next, they’ll be playing a Miami team still wondering what hit them in their loss to the Hawks.

Chicago has one of the clutchest players in the league in DeMar DeRozan, the smooth, shockingly efficient scoring of Zach LaVine, and the man-on-fire defense of Caruso.

Perhaps most importantly, the Bulls went 3-0 against the Heat this season, including two wins when the Heat were at full strength. Of course, we know the postseason is a different beast, but Chicago will come in with the confidence that only a come-from-behind victory can instill. At the same time, Miami is still shell-shocked from their dismal rebounding performance against Atlanta.

Chicago has also had a significantly better net rating than Miami since the trade deadline, outscoring opponents by +2.4 points per 100 possessions compared to the Heat’s -1.5 points per 100.

Despite the Heat’s vaunted defensive reputation, they’ve struggled on that end for months, and they don’t have a great answer for DeMar DeRozan’s midrange mastery. He’s averaged 28/5/8 against the Heat this year on electric 65% shooting from the floor and has even banged home several triples.

One more stat of note: Vucevic had double-digit rebounds in all three games. That could be a problem for the Heat, who are a small team. Miami has been an average rebounding squad since the trade deadline, but we just saw what a team emphasizing the offensive glass can do to them.

Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro have all played reasonably well against Chicago, but (stop me if you’ve heard this before, Heat fans) Miami’s supporting cast has consistently let them down.

The Heat are strong 5.5-point favorites at home. That’s optimistic.

The case for the Oklahoma City Thunder making the NBA Playoffs

While Miami and Chicago play somewhat similar games (defensive-minded squads who run the offense through a midrange-focused wing, a three-level scoring guard, and a playmaking big), the Thunder and their opponent Minnesota could not be much different.

The Thunder play extremely small upfront — they started 6-foot-9 Jaylin Williams at center in the last game (when he put up a beautifully symmetric 8/8/8 stat line). Putting shooters in the frontcourt empowers soon-to-be All-NBA Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to squirm and stutter-step his way into the paint, where he makes hay like a farmer on a deadline.

A key stat —since the trade deadline, OKC has been fourth in the league in FT rate, while the Wolves have been the third-worst fouling team. For all his gifts, Karl-Anthony Towns commits at least two absurd fouls every game, and the returning Rudy Gobert has been more error-prone than usual this season. Without concrete-smashing ace defender Jaden McDaniels around to harass Shai, SGA should be able to drive at will. Gobert will have to choose between helping contain the action or guarding OKC’s shooting bigs (Williams and Dario Saric) on the perimeter.

Minnesota did win the season series 3-1, but the Wolves looked nothing like they do now (for better or worse), and the two haven’t played in the calendar year 2023 yet.

Although Minnesota’s twin towers of Gobert and KAT should feast, the Thunder are actually larger on the perimeter. SGA, Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, and Jalen Williams are all long, strong players, and they could pose some physical problems on both ends for the smaller Wolves guards and wings.

That said, the Thunder have generally had issues scoring on Minnesota, averaging just 108 points in their three losses and shooting less than 30 percent from deep. Minnesota’s aggressive defensive schemes smother the Thunder’s so-so outside shooters, and the Wolves count on Gobert to protect the paint. For all OKC’s prolific rim attempts, they are the third-worst finishing team. They’ll have to be better than that to have a shot on Friday.

The X-factor will be Minnesota’s Anthony Edwards, who played a horrendous offensive game against the Lakers. If he can return to form, the Wolves likely have too much firepower for the feisty Thunder.

Vegas agrees, and the Wolves are currently 4.5-point favorites at home.

Who will advance?

Of the two No. 10 seeds we’ve discussed, the Chicago Bulls have the best chance of making history as the first double-digit seed to enter the playoffs. They’ve been playing great down the stretch, match up well with Miami, and enter Friday’s game knowing that the Heat have all the pressure. Although LaVine had the big game earlier this week, DeRozan has been a thorn in Miami’s side all year, and I’m predicting a big turn from him.

The Thunder very well could win! Minnesota has been up and down all season, and their devastating loss to the Lakers in an excruciatingly winnable game has to be weighing on their minds. The Thunder have the best player in the game in Gilgeous-Alexander, too. But even with McDaniels’ absence, Minnesota likely has too much talent on both sides to be denied a second time.

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