Astros: Concerning stats show Houston rotation could be in trouble

In a league where starting pitching is at a premium and teams rarely have enough to field a solid five-man rotation, the Houston Astros have had a glut.

Gerrit Cole opts for the Evil Empire in free agency? No problem, just call up Cristian Javier who’ll give up only 6.0 hits and strike out 8.9 per 9 innings pitched in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season.

Future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander misses the entire 2021 season recovering from Tommy John surgery? No worries. We’ll get 11 wins and 134.2 innings from a guy named Framber Valdez, who up to that point was 13-11 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.363 WHIP across parts of 3 seasons.

Lance McCullers, Jr. starts 2022 on the Injured List and finishes the regular season with eight starts? Big deal. Jose Urquidy will cover 164.1 innings with a 3.55 ERA and record 13 wins, 2 more than he had in the three previous seasons combined.

Even this season, with McCullers, Jr. again injured to start the season, enter Hunter Brown, who dazzled in his MLB debut last season, going 2-0 with a 0.89 ERA across 20.1 innings in the regular season and then throwing 3.2 shutout innings in the postseason as the Astros won the World Series.

Each time the Astros pitching staff has faced adversity, they’ve not only overcome it, but they have demolished it and the rest of the American League along the way.

Astros: Concerning pitching stats are something to watch for

It’s not surprising the Astros have struggled a bit coming out of the gate in 2023, with the loss of the heart and soul of the team ,Jose Altuve, until late May or June, Michael Brantley nursing a shoulder and the aforementioned Lance McCullers, Jr. sidelined.

It’s also history, as the Astros started 2019 3-5 (AL Champs), 2020 7-10 (made ALCS), 2021 7-10 (AL Champs) and 2022 7-9 (World Series Champs).

Hence, the current 7-8 record is no reason to panic.

Underneath the bravado and “next man up” attitude, perhaps there should be cause for concern though, as the rotation as a whole wobbled through their first two starts, struggling to make it past, and in some cases to, the fifth inning, taxing the bullpen early on and failing to win any of the first 3 series.

It has improved the third time through the rotation, with good performances from Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy, but Cristian Javier was hit hard in giving up 4 runs in 6 innings including a couple of monstrous home runs and Luis Garcia sits at 0-2 with a 7.71 ERA and looks nothing like the Garcia from 2022.

Before the season many wondered if Garcia would be the same after he had to overhaul his windup and ax the “Rock The Baby” motion he had previously.  Garcia was OK in the spring but hasn’t pitched well once the Astros broke camp.

A four-seam fastball that averaged 94.0 MPH in 2022 is coming in at 92.7 this season. A pitch opponents hit .281 on is now being smashed for a .421 batting average, .842 slugging and .562 wOBA.

That may be why Garcia is throwing his cutter more often this season, but that’s getting lit up, too.

The bad news for Houston is it’s not just Garcia. Javier’s four-seamer is down from 93.8 MPH to 92.6 MPH. Urquidy’s is down 93.5 to 92.7 and Brown’s 96.6 to 96.1.

Are the struggles of the Astros rotation much ado about nothing or a long term problem?

What to make of this?  First of all, we’re three starts into the season. It’s early, and Garcia’s four-seamer registered a tick up in Friday’s start and and Brown touched 98.2 MPH Saturday.

Additionally, these are Astros problems, where the tiniest struggles tend to be overanalyzed by those hoping for change at the top of the American League.  After all, this starting rotation has had four quality starts in the last six games.

That said, to have four of five members of the rotation lose velocity has to be concerning and it’s not just the starters either.

Closer Ryan Pressly’s four-seamer is down from 94.5 to 93.6, the lowest of his career and he’s been hit hard in a couple of appearances after an almost spotless 2022.

There’s been plenty of chatter about whether the Astros are still the team to beat in the American League West through the first two weeks of the season, with some concerned about their record as the Rangers and Angels got off to quick starts.

History has shown the Astros record in April is not such a big deal over the course of a 162 game schedule, but some of the underlying numbers could be pointing to a bigger issue that might make the American League West must-see TV for the first time in years.