This Week in Playoff Mode: Kawhi Leonard, Lakers step up, Warriors need to rebound

In, This Week in Playoff Mode, we’re breaking down the first weekend of the NBA Playoffs and honing on the trends to watch for this coming week.

The first weekend of the NBA playoffs delivered some classic performances from the expected (Kawhi Leonard) and unexpected (Austin Reaves), fast-paced games, injury scares and surprising upsets. Sorting through all the excitement, there are some key trends and takeaways that can help set the stage for the rest of the postseason. Here are a few of them.

Top performer: Kawhi Leonard shifting into Playoff Mode

The only chance the Clippers have in this series against the Suns may be if Kawhi Leonard is the best player on the court. In Sunday night’s Game 1 win, that’s who he was. Leonard erupted for 38 points, out-playing Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul, and dragging his Clippers to an upset win on the road.

Truth is, Kawhi has been engaged like this for weeks. After the All-Star break, he averaged 27 points on 54 percent shooting (45 percent from 3-point range), seven rebounds and four assists. He appears to have regained the strength, speed and dexterity that made him such a handful in his historic 2019 playoff run and 2021 postseason masterclass. (Side note: Since his 2019 magnum opus, Leonard has scored at least 30 points in 27 of his next 49 playoff games.)

In a close game against the Suns, Kawhi scored 25 of his 38 points in the second half. Phoenix went with Torrey Craig as the fifth starter over Josh Okogie believing his length and strength could bother Leonard. It didn’t. When guarded by Craig, Leonard went 7-of-12 and did not turn the ball over. Kawhi routinely got deep paint position and ambled into smooth mid-range jumpers. Stuff like this is too easy:

Even when Craig did make it tough, Kawhi still got to his spots using his top-1 percent strength and body control. The Suns eventually shifted Durant onto Kawhi in the fourth quarter. That worked better, but by then Kawhi was already in his bag and just shot over KD.

Going forward, the Suns can’t afford to let Kawhi get going like this. Easier said than done. With Paul George likely to miss the entire first round with a sprained right knee, the ball will be in Kawhi’s hands. Credit for LA’s Game 1 win also goes to Russell Westbrook (nine points, 11 rebounds and eight assists), who stepped up with some key plays down the stretch, and the combination of Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee (26 combined rebounds), which was a browbeater on the glass.

But for a revamped Suns squad that on Sunday played only its ninth game with Durant in the lineup, there’s no time to ease into a rhythm. The playoffs are here, and Kawhi is ready to go.

Did the Heat turn the tables on the Bucks?

The headline from this one is Giannis Antetokounmpo’s back injury and, to a lesser extent, Tyler Herro’s broken hand. We’ll get to the long-term impact of these injuries later on, but don’t let them distract you from another key trend that emerged in Miami’s surprising Game 1 win.

The Heat have struggled to score points consistently all season, but are uniquely suited to score against Milwaukee’s incessant drop coverage. With Brook Lopez hanging back to defend the rim, there’s ample room for Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler to get to their sweet spots in the middle of the floor.

Milwaukee had the fourth-best defense in the league this season, and a lot of credit goes to Mike Budenholzer’s scheme. By taking away the restricted area and chasing opponents off the 3-point line, the Bucks coax opponents into taking long 2s. Most teams don’t want to take those shots but against Milwaukee’s length that’s usually all that is available. The Heat, meanwhile, want to take those shots. Specifically, this is the exact area of the court that Adebayo is trying to get to. The Bucks make it easy. With Lopez hanging back, Adebayo can get to his spot, in rhythm and without interference.

In four games against the Bucks in the regular season, Adebayo averaged 19.5 points on 50 percent shooting. On Sunday, he scored 17 of his 22 points in the second half of Miami’s 130-117 win. Those 130 points are the most scored by any Heat team in a playoff game in franchise history.

Getting Giannis back will help close these gaps. His length and athleticism as a help-side defender shrink these windows. But those shots will still be there. The question is: If Adebayo and Butler can push this series further, will Budenholzer, who rarely deviates from his system, deviate from his system?

Troubling trend: The Warriors’ rebounding

An underrated factor in Golden State’s championship run last season was how well the team rebounded. Despite the lack of size, the Warriors finished last regular season in the top eight in rebounding rate, then cranked that up to a top-three rate in the playoffs (among teams that made it past the first round).

That’s been one of the biggest differences between last season’s Warriors and this season’s team that entered the playoffs as the sixth seed. During the regular season, the Warriors were merely average in rebounding rate — and those numbers actually dropped in their Game 1 loss to the Kings over the weekend.

One of the things that made last season’s championship team so dangerous was their ability to grab long offensive rebounds off missed 3-pointers and create extra possessions. Or, in other words: Extra shots for Stephen Curry.

But rather than create those extra shots, the Warriors were out-rebounded by nine against the Kings and gave up 17 offensive boards.

The return of Andrew Wiggins should help. He had just three rebounds in 28 minutes, but he was also playing his first NBA game in two months. Once he gets his conditioning back, he should be more helpful. The problem for the Warriors is that the playoffs have already started, and they are already down 0-1 in this series. Do they have time for Wiggins to find his legs? And who else besides Wiggins can help rebound against a Kings team that is bigger at nearly every position?

For the Warriors to make a deep playoff run, they’ll have to rediscover the rebounding edge that helped make them last season’s champions.

LeBron James’s teammates stepping up

It could be easy for Grizzlies fans to write off their Game 1 loss to the Lakers as an anomaly. What are the odds that Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura combine for 52 points on 70 percent shooting again in this series? In fact, the Grizzlies players are already doing it:

You want an even crazier stat? One that should be scary for Grizzlies fans? In a close playoff game, LeBron James attempted just one shot the entire fourth quarter. And that’s not because he shifted into Playmaking LeBron. It’s because the Lakers’ revamped supporting cast didn’t need him. Here’s LeBron’s full stat line from the fourth quarter: 3 points on 1-for-1 shooting, one rebound and zero assists in 9:41. For reference, his fourth-quarter usage rate of 10 percent is basically what Juan Toscano-Anderson posted as a Laker before getting traded.

How did the Lakers get away with this? Because Reaves, Hachimura and Anthony Davis were doing the things LeBron usually does. Reaves was punishing the undersized Ja Morant and Tyus Jones, Hachimura was getting into the paint and Davis was turning turnovers into easy points in transition.

Hachimura even turned a post-up into a cross-court assist for a 3-pointer. He ripped this one straight from the LeBron playbook:

On the shot that sealed the game with 1:30 left, Reaves runs a pick-and-roll with Davis while LeBron hangs out off the ball. In these high-leverage minutes to decide a playoff game, it’s jarring to see LeBron do, like, nothing. It’d be like watching Jimmy Page watch someone else play the guitar solo to “Stairway to Heaven.”

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1647713257484845059

This Reaves-Davis pick-and-roll was the bread and butter to the Lakers’ offense. What should worry the Grizzlies is that, if Reaves has it going like this, the solution isn’t obvious. That’s Tyus Jones and Jaren Jackson Jr. guarding the action. Jones is good when guarding his position and fighting through screens, and Jackson will appear on many Defensive Player of the Year ballots. The Grizzlies tried putting Desmond Bane on Reaves, but then the Lakers just pulled D’Angelo Russell into the action to create a switch and drag Jones back in.

And then, even if whatever adjustments the Grizzlies make work, the Lakers can just give the ball to LeBron.

This is trouble not just for Memphis, but for any team that faces the Lakers in these playoffs. The less LeBron has to do now, the fresher and more dangerous he’ll be in later games and rounds.

So while it’s true that Reaves and Hachimura probably aren’t the second coming of Kobe and Shaq and won’t have this kind of performance every game, that’s not really the point. It already happened, the Lakers are up 1-0, and LeBron hasn’t even gotten started.

X-factor: Malik Monk

For those who weren’t paying much attention to the Kings, Malik Monk has been doing this all season. Saturday’s 32-point eruption in Sacramento’s win over the Warriors was his fourth 30-point game of the season and the 18th time he shot 60 percent or better from the field.

Monk has been among the Kings’ most important offensive players. He carries the offense when De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis rest, and can play alongside them just as effectively. Basically, he’s Immanuel Quickley without the hype created by the New York media machine. He could have been a finalist for Sixth Man of the Year.

Anyway, the Warriors didn’t have an answer for him in Game 1. When they put their two best perimeter defenders (Wiggins and Gary Payton II) on him, Monk shot 4-for-6. Anyone else, and Monk went to work.

The Warriors were prepared for Monk’s 3-point shooting — which has been streaky his whole career. But he took just four 3-pointers all game. What they admittedly were not prepared for was the damage Monk did in the paint. Six of his eight made field goals came within five feet of the basket, including a driving layup past Wiggins to retake the lead midway through the fourth quarter. He also got to the line 14 times.

If Game 1 was any indication, Warriors coach Steve Kerr has some potentially complicated decisions to make. The Warriors would prefer to have Payton and Wiggins guard Fox, who also knifed Golden State’s defense for 38 points on Saturday.

Payton will probably end up with the GPII assignment while Wiggins takes Fox. That could cut into Donte DiVincenzo’s minutes, and could even mean less time for Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. All of Golden State’s top guys will play, but during what stretches will be key. Payton is a near-zero on offense while Poole and Thompson provide shooting but are also obvious targets on defense. Kerr will need to balance scoring with the Kings’ top-ranked offense and trying to stop them.

Injuries to watch:

Let’s run through the high-profile injuries that will impact the first round, and potentially beyond.

• Giannis Antetokounmpo: The MVP candidate was ruled out for the remainder of Milwaukee’s Game 1 loss after sustaining a lower back injury on a hard fall in the first quarter. Budenholzer said after the game that Antetokounmpo had an X-ray that came back “clear” and that the team will monitor him over the next couple of days. His status for Wednesday’s Game 2 is unclear, although Shams Charania reported “there is optimism” in regards to Antetokounmpo’s availability.
• Ja Morant: The Grizzlies guard left Sunday’s Game 1 against the Lakers with an apparent hand injury and it was obvious he was in a lot of pain. X-rays were negative, but Morant described his status for Wednesday’s Game 2 as “in jeopardy.”
• Tyler Herro: The Heat guard broke his right hand while diving for a loose ball during the second quarter of Sunday’s Game 1 win over the Bucks. League sources told TNT’s Chris Haynes that Herro is expected to miss 4-6 weeks.

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