All signs point away from Red Sox signing Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani is likely to sign the biggest free agent deal in Major League Baseball history this offseason. But it seems unlikely that the deal will be with the Boston Red Sox.

We all know how rabid the Boston Red Sox fanbase can be. The city hasn’t seen a championship since 2018 and already Red Sox nation is getting restless.

But there’s a quick solution to the fanbase’s woes, and that would be inking Shohei Ohtani to a free agent contract during the offseason. Arguably the best player in baseball, Ohtani will be a free agent this winter and is likely to command the biggest contract in the history of the game.

But the greatest predictor of future behavior is past behavior. And if that holds true, Red Sox fans better not get their hopes up when it comes to signing Ohtani.

All signs point away from Red Sox signing Shohei Ohtani.

The Boston Red Sox decided not to pay Mookie Betts after four consecutive All-Star appearances, four Gold Gloves, three Silver Slugger Awards, and an AL MVP. Instead, Boston dealt Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers prior to the 2020 season.

Betts then signed a 12-year/$365-million deal with the Dodgers. The outfielder helped LA win a World Series championship in 2020, and after a subpar performance in 2021, Betts placed fifth the race for the NL MVP last season while cracking 35 homers and posting an OPS of .873.

Xander Bogaerts was shown the door this past offseason. After back-to-back All-Star campaigns and a slash line of .301/.374/.474 the past two seasons in Boston, the Red Sox allowed Bogaerts to enter free agency. He then signed an 11-year/$280-million contract with the San Diego Padres.

It’s easy to argue that Shohei Ohtani, being a two-way player, is better than both Betts and Bogaerts. But if Boston wasn’t willing to pony up the dough to keep either of these two players that helped the team win a World Series in 2018, how can the fans expect that Red Sox ownership will pay what it’s going to take to land a generational talent like Ohtani?

At least with Bogaerts, you can make the argument that Boston wasn’t going to offer an 11-year deal to a 30-year-old player. But Ohtani will be 29 years old when he enters the free agent market, and it’s easy to see him signing a deal for 12-plus seasons. That’s a lot of zeroes for a player whose best years might be behind after the first five years of the contract.

A lot would have to change for the Red Sox to sign Shohei Ohtani.

You’ve then got the matter of the players who’d be surrounding Shohei Ohtani in Boston. The Red Sox smartly locked up Rafael Devers for the long haul, but Chris Sale has looked anything like the Cy Young candidate he was from 2012-2018.

Boston’s farm system isn’t loaded with talent either. According to MLB.com, the Red Sox pipeline is about middle-of-the-pack and the club has just one prospect (Marcelo Mayer) who most outlets consider to be Top 50.

If you want to point to Fenway Park, the storied history of the Boston Red Sox franchise, and the passion of the fanbase, fine. Those are all true. But if your club isn’t willing to back up the Brinks truck and surround Shohei Ohtani with a competitive roster, the chances of signing the former AL MVP seem very bleak.

Despite the fact he plays two positions, Ohtani is still just one player. He’s currently playing alongside one of the best players the game has ever seen and the Los Angeles Angels have failed to make the postseason for as long as those two have been there. A lot has to change if the Boston Red Sox are going to entice Shohei Ohtani to come play at Fenway.