A wild against the spread trend in the NBA playoffs has emerged

Betting on the point spread in any sport, especially the NBA, is not as simple as simply betting on the winner to cover.

That is, unless you are betting on the NBA playoffs over the last three seasons.

Following the Phoenix Suns’ win over the Los Angeles Clippers on Tuesday night, NBA teams are now 13-0 against the spread when they win the game this season. When you look at the past three seasons, this trend gets even crazier.

Teams that win the game are an insane 171-13 against the spread (92.9 percent cover rate) in the NBA playoffs.

That’s a wild trend, but it doesn’t mean bettors should be rushing to simply bet on favorites.

Over the first 13 games of the playoffs this season, there have been several upsets. The Sacramento Kings have two wins as slight underdogs at home, and the Miami Heat, New York Knicks, Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers all won their Game 1 matchups on the road as underdogs.

This trend may be a bit inflated since there are a lot of close spreads later in the postseason, meaning teams only have to cover a few points in a win, but the first round is much different.

For example, on Wednesday night, the Denver Nuggets are eight-point favorites against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Denver has been dominant at home this season, and this trend suggests that bettors should be willing to lay the eight with Denver if they think the team will win.

As long as this trend holds, bettors that have a feeling a team will win a game as a favorite should feel comfortable taking them to cover the spread. As for underdogs, the more profitable route, if you’re right, is taking the moneyline, since losing teams have covered just 13 times in the last three seasons.

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