Kyle Wright has (debatably) the Atlanta Braves’ single-best pitch. It’s killing opposing batters for an obvious reason.
The Atlanta Braves pitching staff has been really solid so far this season. With an ERA of 3.37, the Braves sit at seventh in the MLB and have a lot to be happy about with a fifth-best 30.0 run differential going into Saturday’s game.
What’s the team’s best pitch, though?
Statcast has some ideas. In terms of run value, Charlie Morton’s curveball is a -7, the best on the team. That’s followed by Bryce Elder’s slider (-4) and Spencer Strider’s slider (-4).
I’d argue you have to give the title to Kyle Wright’s curveball, though, which is a -3 in run value. But in terms of batting average, it’s the most successful pitch the Braves have this year at .059. It’s the fourth-best pitch in terms of expected batting average (.128).
What makes this pitch so good? Let’s take a look.
Kyle Wright’s velocity makes his curveball hard to hit
Taking a look at the entire league’s curveballs, Wright’s really stands out. Here’s a chart of velocity (x axis) and spin rate (y axis), with Wright’s pitches in red. Blue is a random sample of 750 other curveballs thrown by pitchers other than Kyle Wright so far this season.
Clearly, Wright does not have the spin rate of some other pitchers. He’s hovering right around what appears to be the average in that department. But what he does have is speed on that curveball that blows right by batters. It’s why he’s getting a 36.6% whiff rate on that pitch.
He’s got the fastest velocity on his curve of any pitcher with a run value of -3 or lower on their curveball.
What’s most impressive here is that Wright has turned this pitch into his most used, sending it across the plate over 50 percent of the time this year. It became his most-used pitch last year, but even then, he only threw it 34.1% of the time. He’s made it a more central part of his toolkit this season.
Wright is showing it to batters often and they’re still unable to figure it out because it moves across the plate so quickly.
Kyle Wright vs Framber Valdez a great case study in two types of curveballs
Framber Valdez, who will take the mound for the Houston Astros against the Braves and Kyle Wright on Saturday, uses a curve heavily, albeit not as often as Wright.
It’s truly a tale of two pitches when it comes to these two and their curves. Framber Valdez’s hovers below 80 MPH wheras Wright’s is averaging around 84. Valdez has a lot more spin on his, clearly.
Valdez has the traditional curveball. Wright’s moves less due to the lack of spin, but moves quickly.
Which method is better? It’s hard to definitively say since the two pitchers are using this pitch entirely differently. But looking purely at outcomes, Kyle Wright is getting deadly results compared to Valdez:
Wright is using his curve in a way almost no one else is, and he’s getting more out of that pitch than others. It’s the best pitch on the Braves staff so far.