Clarke Schmidt needs to prove he can hang in this Yankees rotation. He can do so by continuing to feature one pitch that has worked tremendously well.
There is little confidence that the New York Yankees can take their rubber match against the Toronto Blue Jays home on Sunday because Clarke Schmidt is taking the mound. Schmidt’s 8.79 ERA is the worst of any on the starting rotation, and to make matters worse, the Yankees offense has completely stalled with three runs or fewer in seven of the last 10 games.
Maybe some late walk-off production from Saturday was the momentum they needed there.
Back to the pitching, though, Schmidt needs to bring his A-game to get himself back on track and earn himself some confidence, both from himself and from the Yankee faithful.
To do so, he can look to one area in which he’s performing slightly better than even Gerrit Cole: His knuckle curveball.
Clarke Schmidt’s knuckle curve has been productive so far this season
Thinking of some of the best pitches of the Yankees starting rotation, fans point to Gerrit Cole’s fastball, his knuckle curve, and Nestor Cortes’s cutter.
Clarke Schmidt is, for good reason, not the first name that comes to mind when thinking of elite individual pitches. But his knuckle curve deserves as much praise as Gerrit Cole’s, if not more!
Cole’s knuckle curve has a run value of -1 (for reference, his fastball is tied for the deadliest pitch in the MLB right now at -9) according to Statcast, which Schmidt’s ties.
Tale of two pitches for Cole and Schmidt’s knucle curveballs
Comparing these pitches overall is a little bit tricky, but for the time being, Schmidt gets the edge here.
Schmidt’s knuckle curve has about the same velocity on it as Cole’s, but a far higher spin rate. Compared to a random sample of other knuckle curveballs, it’s a higher spin rate than usual:
This gives his knuckle curve a lot more horizontal movement, and that has made it harder to hit.
Cole’s pitch has less movement, which results in more groundballs (lower launch angle). Schmidt has gotten more popouts (higher launch angle). Ultimately, though, Schmidt’s is resulting in better outcomes. Here’s how the pitches compare:
- Cole (BA, whiff%): .188/21.9%
- Schmidt (BA, whiff%): .154/29%
Schmidt throws his K-curve about 5 percent more frequently than Cole already, but continuing to feature this pitch is necessary. That said, this isn’t the issue for Schmidt. Cole’s knuckle curve works so well in part because his four-seamer being elite sets up the rest of his sequencing. Schmidt’s arsenal is more limited.
Now, as far as where Schmidt could actually learn from Cole, I think the Yankees could look at how Cole uses his K-curve in sequencing. Comparing the correlation between pitches in their respective sequences, there’s no apparent method to the way Schmidt throws. But looking at Cole’s, t he thick blue lines here tell us the knuckle curve is used deliberately in connection with the changeup and slider (either before or after).
Schmidt has one good pitch here, and I’m a proponent of him using it, but he also needs to do that strategically and bring along his other pitches to create a more methodical approach.
It won’t be shocking to see Cole’s knuckle curve come along as stronger than Schmidt’s by the end of the year. But Schmidt is able to hang his hat on it right now, and for a player with not much to be proud of yet, that’s something.