Mexico Open picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

Mexico Open picks and best bets for the 2023 trip to Vidanta Vallarta as we have an outright, Top 10 and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

Out of the swamp and into Mexico, the PGA Tour is heading to beautiful Vidanta Vallarta for the 2023 Mexico Open this week as newly minted Masters champion Jon Rahm will be back in action once again after capturing the victory here a year ago.

And as we look into our Mexico Open picks this week, let’s be honest, Rahm is probably the smart pick to win. Of course, the fact that he’s installed as the +260 favorite to win, that number isn’t worth touching. Instead, if you want Rahm on the best bets card, you’re going to have to get creative (which we will). But we’re looking for longer shots with our other PGA Tour expert picks.

We’re coming off of the Zurich Classic, which I often struggle with, but we didn’t bleed too much. If only our Top 20 play for Davis Riley and Nick Hardy had been an outright instead, we’d be cruising. But alas, we need a big week, so let’s have one with our 2023 Mexico Open picks with an outright, Top 10, one and done and more PGA Tour expert picks in our best bets.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Zurich: 22-60-2, -8.144 units (0-16 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | -1.15 units at Zurich)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $4,147,514.22 (Hojgaard/Oleson at Zurich, $36,636)

PGA Tour expert picks for Mexico Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 Pick for the Mexico Open: Wyndham Clark (+190, DraftKings)

For the majority of his career, the story on Wyndham Clark has been a long-hitter who needs to polish the rest of his game. But do you know who leads this field in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 20 rounds? It’s not Rahm — it’s Wyndham Clark. He’s playing the best golf of his career, particularly with strong approach play and a solid if not unspectacular putter. I love him as a Top 10 play at decent value in a weak field.

Pick to Win the Mexico Open (0.5 Units): Ben Martin (+6500)

Swinging for the fences here a bit but it’s hard to not take Ben Martin seriously at this point. He has three Top 10s in his last six regular starts (he missed the cut at the Zurich team event) and has been gaining 1.17 strokes ball striking over the last 20 rounds and gaining with the putter too. He’s due for a big finish with the way he’s been playing and his odds are too long for me to pass up on having him as the outright pick.

One and Done Pick for Mexico Open: Wyndham Clark

We already covered why I’m all over Clark this week but it stands. I don’t want to burn a big name this week for One and Done so, with his form and this weak field, this feels like a nice spot to cash in on his performance this week.

Mexico Open picks and best bets

Aaron Rai to finish Top 20 (+190)

Aaron Rai has been playing some really solid golf of late, most notably gaining 1.10 strokes with ball striking over his last 20 rounds, a run that includes two Top 20 finishes (including the Zurich last week). Moreover, he played well at the Mexico Open last year, finishing T24. In this weak field, his ball striking should be enough to cash in on a Top 20 finish this year.

MJ Daffue to finish Top 20 (+290)

While MJ Daffue might not totally be a household name, he’s quietly not finished outside of the Top 30 in any of his past five starts. He’s gaining over a half-stroke with the ball striking categories over that round and is swinging a hot putter, gaining more than a stroke on the greens over the last 20 rounds. With this form in this field, he’s worth a swing for a Top 20.

Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Gary Woodland to all finish Top 20 (+260, DraftKings)

DraftKings is offering some already-constructed parlays, so I’m going to be the sucker to take three of the favorites to all finish Top 20. Rahm and Finau were the winner and a T2 finish here a year ago and are second and third in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 20 rounds. Meanwhile, Woodland has been striking the hell out of the ball but has started to not bleed strokes on the greens, which is enough of a sign for me to buy in.

Longshot pick to win the Mexico Open: Erik Van Rooyen (+13000)

Because the finishes have been erratic, you might not realize that Erik Van Rooyen is actually second in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach over the last 20 rounds. He has a Top 10 at the Valspar relatively recently but some missed cuts as well. Still, with the ball striking looking that good, I’m willing to consider him worth a look as a longshot play in this field.

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