Mexico Open DraftKings picks 2023: Best PGA DFS golf lineup

Breaking down Mexico Open DraftKings picks for the week at Vidanta with top plays, top fades and building a PGA DFS golf lineup.

We’re off to the 2023 Mexico Open this week at Vidanta Vallarta for what should be a fun tournament, albeit one with a field that can best be described as defending champ Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and then a bunch of other guys. But that makes our Mexico Open DraftKings picks that much more fun to parse through.

Because of how top-heavy the field is with those two, building a PGA DFS lineup is tricky because their prices are way inflated. It’s a great week to bet on value and see if those two favorites don’t have an off week, even if that’s not necessarily a safe bet.

But that’s the strategy at hand, so let’s dive into our 2023 Mexico Open DraftKings picks with top plays and fades for each range before building a winning PGA DFS lineup.

Mexico Open DraftKings picks for PGA DFS lineups: Top Plays

$10,000: Tony Finau ($10,700) – Only two golfers occupy the $10K range this week on DraftKings and Jon Rahm is at $12,000. Obviously, playing Rahm is advantageous given that he’s been the best player in the world this year. But the fact of the matter is that price makes it hard to build a lineup. So I’m betting on saving $1,300 for my PGA DFS lineup with Finau, who is statistically the second-best player in the field and finished second behind Rahm here last year. Also Consider: Jon Rahm ($12,000)

$9,000: Wyndham Clark ($9,700) – Make no mistake, Rahm and Finau are the best players in this tournament by a sizable margin. But it’s Wyndham Clark who actually leads the field in Strokes Gained: Total over the last 20 rounds. He hits it a mile, has gained strokes in all four major categories lately, and I love for him to contend to win in his current form this week. Also Consider: Gary Woodland ($9,600), Nicolai Hojgaard ($9,500), Patrick Rodgers ($9,300), Byeong Hun An ($9,100)

$8,000: MJ Daffue ($8,000) – There is quite a bit of sneaky value in the $8K range that I plan to take advantage of but I love getting Daffue at the bottom of the tier. Over his last 20 rounds, a stretch that includes no finishes outside of the Top 30, he’s gaining more than 0.5 strokes with ball striking and 1.14 strokes putting. That’s a great recipe at this course, especially for someone decently long off the tee. I love his fit and form, especially at a flat $8K Also Consider: Aaron Rai ($8,900), Beau Hossler ($8,800), Ben Martin ($8,600), Emiliano Grillo ($8,500), Brandon Wu ($8,300)

$7,000: Joseph Bramlett ($7,800) – Last week, Bramlett looked quite good as he finished T26 with his team at the Zurich but it backs up some solid-ish play lately. He hits the ball a mile but has been gaining on approach and around the greens over the last 20 rounds too. On easier greens to putt on, I’m willing to hitch my wagon to him having a good week in Mexico. Also Consider: Will Gordon ($7,900), Luke List ($7,800), Eric Cole ($7,500), Akshay Bhatia ($7,400), Erik Van Rooyen ($7,200), Sean O’Hair ($7,000)

$6,000: Martin Trainer ($6,800) – Let’s be real, the $6K range is ultra-bleak this week, which is why I’m hesitant to have Jon Rahm to start my lineup at his price. Trainer, however, has a T22 and T9 in his last two starts (Corales and Zurich), and was sneakily T11 in Mexico last year. It’s a big-time flier, but if I have to go down here, that’s the spot. Also Consider: Ryan Gerard ($6,900), Brandon Matthews ($6,600)

Mexico Open DraftKings picks for PGA DFS lineups: Top Fades

$10,000: None – There are only two players in the $10K range and they are clearly the two best players in the field. I can’t, in good conscience, tell you to fade either if you can make a lineup work.

$9,000: Maverick McNealy ($9,400) – Even in this weak field, I can’t get there to paying into the $9K range for Mav McNealy. He’s losing 1.25 strokes with his ball striking over the last 20 rounds and has only been gaining with the short game. It’s going to be a birdie-fest and I don’t see how McNealy competes when he’s hitting the ball that poorly off the tee and with his irons.

$8,000: Alex Smalley ($8,400) – Given that Smalley finished T6 here last year, I can see how you would be enticed to have him in your lineup. The form just isn’t there, though. He’s basically average (0.0 strokes gained) off the tee, on approach and around the green over the last 20 rounds while bleeding more than 0.8 strokes on the green. That’s not going to get it done for me and there is much better value and upside in this price range.

$7,000: Harry Hall ($7,400) – Because of some relatively recent good finishes, you might be inclined to look at Harry Hall. But the Englishman is losing over 0.8 strokes on approach over his last 20 rounds and is now taking his under 300-yard driving distance average to a long course. That’s a tough scene for him, especially since he’s actually been slightly negative with the putter recently too, which is normally his greatest strength.

Mexico Open: Best DraftKings golf PGA DFS lineup

• Wyndham Clark ($9,700)
• Aaron Rai ($8,900)
• Ben Martin ($8,600)
• MJ Daffue ($8,000)
• Joseph Bramlett ($7,800)
• Sean O’Hair ($7,000)

With the overall lack of depth in the field, I’m skipping out on Rahm and Finau and hoping someone pops to get them, which I think we have good options. We already talked about Clark, Daffue and Bramlett, but the other guys have big upside too.

Martin has cooled in terms of finishes but is still gaining big time with ball striking, over 1.1 strokes in his last 20 rounds. Rai is similar but with better finishes. More importantly, the putting should improve on Paspolum this week. And lastly, O’Hair is a flier but with some data behind it. The veteran PGA Tour pro has three Top 30 finishes in his last three starts and could be trending slightly.

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