Braves vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 2 (Alcantara undervalued)

After winning the National League Cy Young in 2022, Sandy Alcantara became a bit overvalued heading into the 2023 season, but now it’s time to play back against it.

Alcantara’s numbers don’t look so great this season, he has an ERA north of 5.00, and he is facing the Atlanta Braves, who may have one of the best rosters in the big leagues, but this Marlins team is far better than expectations at over .500, and numbers show that the Cy Young winner should turn it around soon.

So, what’s the play? Here are the odds:

Braves vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Marlins prediction and pick

Alcantara has a 5.04 ERA, which looks bad, but he also has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.85, hinting that the Marlins defense hasn’t been helping the Cy Young winner out once the ball is in play. Most of Alcantara’s ERA stems from a four inning outing in early April in which he allowed nine earned runs to the Phillies. Besides that, he hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his four other starts.

He’ll face an elite Atlanta lineup, but I think that Alcantara’s strong play will keep up on Tuesday when factoring in that the Braves full roster will be gassed after playing a double header against the Mets on the road on Monday. Most importantly, count on a taxed bullpen after such high usage over the past 24-plus hours.

Further helping the Marlins offense, which is hitting just under .250 this year in a vast improvement from year over year, will face Bryce Elder of the Braves, who is begging for some poor outcomes. Elder has a 2.17 ERA through five starts, but unlike Alcantara, has a FIP of 4.07, meaning that he’s been getting bailed out in the field by his teammates.

The Marlins are over .500 and playing great ball, while the Braves are a class above, the pitching matchup of Alcantara vs. Elder is enough for me to bite on this cheap price for Miami.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.