2023 NBA Mock Draft 7.0: Final lottery simulation

The 2023 NBA Draft lottery has the potential to change the fortunes of several teams. 

There are always high stakes when the NBA Draft lottery commences. This year, however, those stakes are higher than normal. Neil DeGrasse Tyson recently explained to ESPN’s Stephen A. Smith how the Cincinnati Bengals once beat the Seattle Seahawks on a game-winning field goal because of the Earth’s spin and the concurring gravitational pull. Well, that same gravitational pull could determine which team gets to select Victor Wembanyama in a couple months.

The 2023 NBA Draft lottery will take place on May 16. The chaotic, randomized bounces of a few ping-pong balls will determine who selects 1-4 in June. A team who tanked all season could suddenly find itself sitting at No. 5. Meanwhile, for all we know, a team that genuinely tried to make the playoffs could end up with the best prospect since LeBron just… there for the taking.

It’s an exciting and moderately absurd proposition. But this year the stakes are high not only because of Wembanyama, but because of the sheer volume of top-end talent around Wembanyama. There are several potential All-Stars lurking in the lottery range. Teams who get lucky will have plenty to celebrate, even if they don’t land the top pick.

2023 NBA Mock Draft: Who gets picked in the first round?

In keeping with tradition, we simulated the lottery order via Tankathon. Next time we do this exercise, the lottery order will be set in stone. Congratulations to the Charlotte Hornets, who win our final simulation. Should we read into that? Is it some sort of cosmic sign? Probably not.

By nature, mock drafts allow us to consider team fit, but we have also reached the point where predictive actions are necessary. What have teams done in the past that might inform their actions in the present? Which prospects are generating the most buzz in reporting circles? It’s impossible to predict anything with absolute certainty this far from draft night, but there are plenty of contextual factors we can use to determine who a team might pick.

Kris Murray’s role and production skyrocketed at Iowa following the departure of his twin brother, last year’s No. 4 pick Keegan Murray. The Clippers struggled to generate quality minutes at the power forward spot late in the season; Murray’s blend of size and shooting could make him an immediate fit.

The Pacers showed themselves willing to sacrifice “upside” in favor of older, more NBA-ready prospects with the Chris Duarte pick a couple years ago. Jaime Jaquez won’t go nearly as high in the draft, but he’s a proven college winner who has all the intangibles a young team like Indiana should covet.

Before the season, Dillon Mitchell was on the lottery track. A bumpy freshman season at Texas sent him plummeting down draft boards, but there will still be teams interested in the inherent upside of such a monster athlete. Few things are more exciting than Mitchell detonating at the rim. Utah has three first-round picks and can afford the patient approach.

This feels like a Charlotte pick. GG Jackson is the youngest draft-eligible prospect and the upside is undeniable. On one hand, he scored a lot of points as the spearhead of South Carolina’s offense. On the other hand, his efficiency was extremely suboptimal and his youth was frequently reflected in his decision-making. The Hornets might not have the best infrastructure in place to cultivate Jackson’s game, but he’s a talented forward with big-time potential.

The Pacers land Kobe Bufkin, one of the biggest in-season risers. He showed ample potential at Michigan in pro-style actions, slinging around DHOs and operating in pick-and-rolls, frequently slicing down the middle of the defense for finishes at the rim. There are valid concerns about Bufkin’s passing and upside as a true creator, but the Pacers are well-positioned to mask those weaknesses behind the powerful playmaking engine of Tyrese Haliburton.

Maxwell Lewis started the season on fire before tapering off as the season progressed. Pepperdine was quite bad in a weak conference, and Lewis’ apparent lack of energy and focus at times probably rubbed scouts the wrong way. Still, the talent is undeniable and the Grizzlies could use help on the wing with Dillon Brooks on the way out.

The Kings’ lack of quality defensive personnel finally reared its ugly head in their Game 7 loss to Golden State. It’s clear Sacramento is a very good team, but it’s fair to question the ceiling of any group with a bottom-5 regular season defense. Noah Clowney is probably years away from contributing for a contender, but he has intriguing athletic tools and the potential to provide a switchable defensive anchor in the frontcourt next to Domantas Sabonis.

The Blazers need a long-term (and short-term) solution at center. Jusuf Nurkic is fading and Dereck Lively feels like the logical replacement. His remarkable growth in-season at Duke should have scouts convinced of his ability to influence winning on both ends. Lively is a massive athlete and potentially elite rim protector. Centers can feel interchangeable, making Lively a candidate to fall on draft night, but the Blazers are one of the few teams with a glaring need in the 5 spot.

Brice Sensabaugh will have to prove he can defend consistently at the next level, but the shot-making is off the charts. He scored with remarkable proficiency from just about everywhere on the floor for Ohio State. He can bully smaller guards in the post, he can light it up from mid-range, or he can bury the defense with a barrage of 3s. Brooklyn needs more offensive firepower and Sensabaugh appears ready to provide.

One of the youngest players in the draft, Bilal Coulibaly feels like a smart gamble for the Nets — or any team with multiple first-round picks. He’s a long, explosive athlete who already contributes bountifully on the defensive end. He has a long way to go offensively, but he finds ways to produce off cuts to the basket or by generating second-chance opportunities.

Check out our full scouting report on Bilal Coulibaly here. 

The Rockets certainly appear to be planning major improvements to the roster this summer. Regardless of which direction the roster goes, however, better defense is a must. Rayan Rupert, one of the youngest players on the board, is a rangy athlete with a 7-foot-3 wingspan and a penchant for stops.

There are valid concerns about Jett Howard’s ability to hold up defensively, but it’s not for lack of effort. On the offensive end, he’s a 3-point sniper with size who flashes the potential to be more than a simple floor spacer. His high I.Q. and knack for off-ball movement and would make Howard a good fit for Steve Kerr’s complex, motion-oriented offense.

Colby Jones feels like a Miami Heat kind of guy. He’s a versatile defensive wing and underrated athlete who can contribute amply across the board. His 3-point numbers improved drastically as a junior and he’s a crafty finisher around the rim. He’s ready to contribute now and the Heat certainly lack bodies on the wing beyond Jimmy Butler.

Jalen Hood-Schifino has wowed scouts all season with his slippery shot creation and two-way upside. His iffy 3-point shooting could give the Lakers pause, but the talent oozes off the screen with Hood-Schifino and he would present tremendous upside as another ball-handler to grow alongside Austin Reaves in the backcourt.

A touted high school player who never quite lived up to the hype as a freshman at Duke, there are a lot of split opinions on Dariq Whitehead. Whether or not you believe in the return of his on-ball creation, the 18-year-old shot over 42 percent from deep. That alone should be enough to pique Utah’s interest.

Leonard Miller likely has a very wide draft range, but it’s hard not to be enamored with the physical gifts. His helter-skelter movement style suggests very intriguing upside as a creator and scorer for a 6-foot-10 forward. The Hawks showed similar interest in a big forward with ball skills when they selected Jalen Johnson a couple of years ago.