Projecting Justin Jefferson’s stats in 2023: Can he get any better?

It was a big year for arguably the best player at his position in the NFL. Can Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson top his 2022 performance?

Recently, there was a post on Reddit.com asking a very legitimate question in regard to the 2022 NFL Offensive Player of the Year.

"Justin Jefferson was 1st in receptions, targets, receiving yards, catches for 20+ yards, and catches for 1st downs in 2022. Is improvement even possible in 2023?"

First, let’s take a look at this past season’s stats. A Pro Bowler in each of his first three seasons, Jefferson led the league in targets (184), catches (128), and receiving yards (1,809). There were NFL highs in catches of 20-plus yards (28), as well as receptions for first downs (80). However, Jefferson only pulled down eight passes for scores. A total of 10 players in the league scored more touchdowns through the air.

Yes, Jefferson put up some impressive numbers in 2022. It is worth a reminder that those 128 receptions are ranked seventh all-time for a single season. That means there are six examples of a player topping that total, led by Saints’ wideout Michael Thomas (149) in 2019 and Rams’ receiver Cooper Kupp (145) in 2021. Pro Football Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison grabbed 143 passes in 2002, while Atlanta’s Julio Jones finished with 136 catches in 2015.

Vikings: Can Justin Jefferson continue this level of success?

Looking for an example of a performer who twice surpassed Jefferson’s 2022 total? Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Antonio Brown finished with 129 catches in 2014 and one year later finished with 136 catches.

Back to Kupp’s amazing 2021 season. He not only led the league in catches but finished with NFL highs in targets (191), receiving yards (1,947), and touchdown grabs (16). He also garnered NFL Offensive Player of the Year honors. Kupp followed that up with an impressive four-game postseason, but that’s a different story for another time.

Given the fact that Jefferson has seen his targets, receptions, and receiving yards all increase on a yearly basis during his brief career, the sky could be the limit for the three-year pro in 2023. Wide receiver Adam Thielen is no longer around to help and that could increase quarterback Kirk Cousins’ dependence on Jefferson.

Finally, if the Minnesota defense doesn’t make significant strides, it could add up to another year of shootouts in the Twin Cities.