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Rangers vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Monday, May 8

By Josh Yourish

Apr 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 26, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert (36) throws a pitch during the second inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports /
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We’re starting to get deep into the second month of the season and the Texas Rangers are still in first place in the AL West at 20-13. They just pounded the second place Angels, 10-1 and 16-6 in back-to-back days and now have a three-game set with the Seattle Mariners who are third in the division at 17-17.

The Mariners just took two games from the Astros as the AL West round-robin continues this month. For Game 1 of this series in Seattle, the Rangers will hand the ball to Jon Gray who is 1-1 with a 4.40 ERA in six starts this season. The Mariners will counter with 1-1 Logan Gilbert and his 4.01 ERA.

Let’s check out the odds for Texas and Seattle.

Rangers vs. Mariners odds, run line and total

Rangers vs. Mariners prediction and pick

The two pitchers in this one have very similar numbers on the surface but if you dig a little deeper then they’ll realize that there is a big difference between the two. Gray has a 4.40 ERA and Gilbert a 4.01, but Gray has a FIP of 6.22 and an expected ERA of 6.15. He is eighth percentile in strikeout percentage, 16th in walk rate, and has an expected slugging of .503. That’s worse than any of his years in Colorado.

Gilbert on the other hand has a FIP of 3.15, a stellar xERA of 2.86 which is 84th percentile in baseball, and has 40 strikeouts to seven walks. He is in the 82nd percentile of K% and 81st in walk rate. His ERA is bound to come down over the course of the season and his traditional numbers will look like a true top of the line guy again in no time.

This discrepancy is the reason that the Mariners are big favorites at home tonight. I still like the Mariners to get it done and feel confident taking them on the run line with plus odds.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change