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Cubs vs. Twins prediction and odds for Friday, May 12 (Believe in the Cubbies)

By Josh Yourish

May 1, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly (11) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
May 1, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Drew Smyly (11) throws to the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Nationals Park. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Chicago Cubs got off to a strong start this year, but a familiar foe came into town and took two of three this week. Two losses to the Cardinals have the Cubs down at 18-19 as they head to face the Minnesota Twins in this interleague series. The Twins are 21-17 and just won a series over the Padres before this matchup.

The Twins have their ace on the mound as Sonny Gray is set to make his eighth start of the season. Gray has a 1.35 ERA and 4-0 record, but the Twins lost his last start. On the other side will be Drew Smyly. The veteran lefty is 3-1 with a 3.05 ERA.

Let’s take a look at the odds for this interleague matchup in Minnesota.

Cubs vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Cubs vs. Twins prediction and pick

Sonny Gray is pitching as well as anyone in baseball this season, but last time out he might have shown some chinks in the armor. He doesn’t go particularly deep into his starts, never more than seven innings and often just five. That is one of the reasons he hasn’t had a blow up start yet and his numbers look so clean, but in more extended outings there is a chance his weaknesses get exposed.

Gray has two dominant pitches, with his curveball and cutter which carry a .231 wOBA and a .185 wOBA, but his next two most commonly used pitches, his fastball and sinker have a wOBA of .425 and .331. He has to go deeper into his bag when he sees the lineup the next time through and will get touched up in longer outings. His expected ERA is 2.83, so there will be some regression coming his way at some point soon.

The Twins are 27th in OPS against left-handed pitchers, and despite losing three of four the Cubs offense is top 10 over the past week. I think Drew Smyly will have success against Minnesota and Gray will see more regression after a less than stellar start last time out, so I’ll back the Cubs on the road.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change