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Diamondbacks vs. Athletics prediction and odds for Monday, May 15 (Why to bet UNDER)

By Reed Wallach

Apr 28, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 28, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly (29) delivers a pitch in the first inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Diamondbacks resurgent season continues in Oakland on Monday as Arizona starts a series against the lowly Athletics, who have the worst record in baseball.

Arizona is in second in the NL West through more than 40 games while the A’s are still below 10 wins on the year. The D-Backs will send out Merrill Kelly to get the team off to a win against Athletics’ starter Drew Rucinski, who has been a disaster for Oakland so far.

Can the home team keep pace with Arizona? What about the over/under, is there an edge for us sports bettors? Here are the odds and my favorite play on this one:

Diamondbacks vs. Athletics odds, run line and total

Diamondbacks vs. Athletics prediction and pick

My favorite play on this one is the under. While the Diamondbacks offense has been more than formidable this season, top 10 in key metrics like on-base percentage, strikeout rate and wRC+ (quality of run scoring chances), this is a high total for a team to clear likely on its own.

With a total of 9, both teams are going to need to have strong offensive performances, but we can’t expect much out of the A’s against Kelly, who has a 3.18 ERA while allowing only six hits per nine innings. Oakland is 24th in batting average, which makes me bearish that they can plate enough runs to keep up.

However, the case for the under surrounds around some looming Rucinski regression on the mound for the A’s. He has only made three starts for Oakland this season and has allowed 13 earned runs, including three home runs. Rucinski hasn’t pitched in the big leagues since 2018, but maybe this has been an adjustment period. He has walked more batters than he has struck them out and I believe this will regress to the mean over time.

It looks grim for Rucinski, and I’m not making the case for the A’s to win, but I do believe this total has a case to go under with some natural calibration for the right handers statistics, even against a rock solid lineup in the D-Backs.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.