PGA Championship picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for Oak Hill
PGA Championship picks and best bets for the 2023 tournament at Oak Hill as we have outrights, Top 10s and more PGA Tour expert picks for the second major.
The second major championship of the year is here as the 2023 PGA Championship takes to Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY, a course with a great major history, last being the site of Jason Dufner claiming the Wanamaker Trophy back in 2013.
Since that time, though, Oak Hill has undergone an extensive rennovation and tree removal project that will make this year’s major play much different than it did a decade ago. Don’t make your 2023 PGA Championship picks based on how things played 10 years ago — instead, we’re going to be looking at players who excel with long drives to the right parts of fairways, long approaches, and can save themselves around tricky green complexes.
Not every player in our 2023 PGA Championship picks is going to fit that bill perfectly, but they all check multiple boxes to succeed at Oak Hill. So with that in mind, let’s take a look at our PGA Tour expert picks for the PGA Championship this week, first going through our expert picks for Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 and One and Done before getting more best bets and then three outright winner picks to win at Oak Hill Country Club this week.
Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. With such a big card for The Masters, the expert picks listed first are 1 unit, the rest are 0.5 units unless otherwise noted. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.
Golf betting record in 2023 through Byron Nelson: 18-45-2, -13.394 units (0-19 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets | -3.6 units at Byron Nelson)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $4,301,685.65 (KH Lee at Byron Nelson, $22,416.43)
PGA Championship picks: PGA Tour expert picks for Top 5 Top 10, Top 20, One and Done
Top 5 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Xander Schauffele (+450)
Always the bridesmaid, Xander Schauffele is still searching for his first major championship win. But the man has been playing stellar golf leading up to the PGA Championship, finishing T10 at The Masters and inside the Top 5 at both the RBC Heritage and Wells Fargo for his last three stroke play starts. He’s slightly better than Tour average on proximity from approaches 200+ yards, but his driving is top tier and, overall his approach play has been phenomenal. He’s also first in this field in weighted Strokes Gained: Total over the last 20 rounds.
I just can’t trust him to win, but these odds for a Top 5 are juicy.
Top 10 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Justin Thomas (+250)
I’m not going to be picking Justin Thomas to win the PGA Championship in back-to-back years, but the fact of the matter is that we’re starting to see JT find his form once again. After a missed cut at Augusta, he was T25 at the Heritage and then T14 at Wells Fargo in his last two starts. More importantly, his ball striking has come back, gaining 2.15 weighted strokes tee-to-green over his last 20 rounds. He may not win again, but he’ll be back in contention in that form.
Top 20 pick at the PGA Championship 2023: Adam Scott (+300)
Adam Scott is an ageless wonder at 42 years old, fresh off of T8 finish at the Byron Nelson. But he fits super well at Oak Hill with his long, accurate driving while ranking tied for eighth on the PGA Tour this season in proximity on approaches from 200+ yards. When you then factor in that he’s gaining more than 2.0 strokes with his short game over the last 12 rounds, Scott is trending toward a great finish this week and this type of value for Top 20 is too easy.
One and Done pick for the PGA Championship: Cameron Smith
There’s only but so many times that you can take a LIV Golf player in One and Done, so I’m getting after it with Cam Smith this week. He showed great form in Tulsa this past week as he made it into a playoff, though he lost to Dustin Johnson. The erratic driver does scare me a bit, but the upside with his streaky approach play and elite short game make me confident he can pull through with a great finish.