How does the NBA Draft Lottery work? Odds, process and history, explained

Breaking down how the NBA Draft Lottery works with the selection process, odds that each team gets the No. 1 pick, and more. 

The NBA Draft Lottery is always a hopeful time for teams and fans, but none more so than in the 2023 NBA Draft. That’s because French phenom Victor Wembanyama is one of the most highly coveted and generational draft prospects that the basketball world has seen in quite some time, perhaps since LeBron James.

All 14 teams in the NBA Draft Lottery and their fan bases are hoping that they will be the ones lucky enough to win the No. 1 overall pick and, in turn, Wembanyama. Of course, the nature of the Lottery means that there are no guarantees until the draft order is ultimately determined.

But how does it actually work? What is the process for the NBA Draft Lottery? Let’s take a look at everything you need to know about how the NBA Draft Lottery determines the Top 14 picks.

NBA Draft Lottery: Probability, odds every team gets the No. 1 pick

Using the teams in the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery, let’s take a look at the percentage chance each team has of getting the No. 1 pick based on the inverse order of records from this past season, in addition to the percentage chance that a team will have a Top 4 pick (Listed as First Pick Percentage | Top 4 Pick Percentage).

1. Detroit Pistons (14% | 52.13%)
2. Houston Rockets (14% | 52.13%)
3. San Antonio Spurs (14% | 52.13%)
4. Charlotte Hornets (12.5% | 48.07%)
5. Portland Trail Blazers (10.5% | 42.11%)
6. Orlando Magic (9% | 37.22%)
7. Indiana Pacers (6.8% | 29.36%)
8. Washington Wizards (6.7% | 28.98%)
9. Utah Jazz (4.5% | 20.27%)
10. Dallas Mavericks (3.00% | 13.88%)
11. Chicago Bulls (1.8% | 8.5%)
12. Oklahoma City Thunder (1.7% | 8.04%)
13. Toronto Raptors (1% | 4.78%)
14. New Orleans Pelicans (0.5% | 2.41%)

There were changes made to the NBA Draft Lottery process that were ratified in 2017 but took effect in 2019. Previously, the team with the worst record had a 25% chance of getting the No. 1 pick while the second-worst record earned a 19.9% chance and the third-worst record earned a 15.6% chance. In measures taken to help de-incentivize tanking, the three worst records all earn a 14% chance at the No. 1 overall pick.

How does the NBA Draft Lottery work?

So how does the NBA Draft Lottery actually determine the order of the first 14 selections in the draft?

On the night of the Lottery, accounting firm Ernst & Young will have 14 ping-pong balls that are, of course, ordered Nos. 1-14 into a standard lottery selector. Things then get a bit technical with the probability, but it’s smart. With the 14 balls in the machine, there will be four of them selected. The selection of four ping-pong balls means that there are 1,001 unique combinations that can be formed with the numbers 1-14 in the order that they are drawn.

Prior to this process, 1,000 of those combinations are assigned to the 14 lottery teams with the number of assignments based on their percentage chances of getting the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. One result is not assigned and, if drawn, will not count — though it would be hilarious if there was a 1/1,001 chance of some chaotic scenario.

Ernst & Young will then continue to oversee the process as the lottery balls are spun in the machine to mix them up for 20 seconds before drawing the first ball. A 10-second mix will follow before the selection of a second ping-pong ball, repeating that 10-second process until a four-ball combination is revealed. The team that was assigned that exact combination in order will be awarded the No. 1 overall pick. That process is then done again to determine the No. 2-4 picks in the draft. If a combination for a team whose pick has already been assigned comes up, that result is discarded and the process is done again.

From that point, the remaining 10 teams’ order in the NBA Draft Lottery will be determined by their inverse record from the previous season.

With this process, as was brought about prior to the 2019 NBA Draft, the team with the worst record can not get worse than the No. 5 pick in the draft, which is a change from previous rules that prevented the team with the worst record not getting worse than the fourth pick.