MLB standings ordered by run differential: Rays no longer on top

How would the MLB standings, both American League and National League, look if ordered by run differential instead of wins and losses? 

The MLB season is heating up, with several contenders starting to separate themselves from the pack. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers are kings of the National League, while the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles have the best records in the American League.

Sometimes, however, win-loss totals can be misleading. How so? There’s a lot of noise in game-to-game outcomes. A lot of factors that can veer a team’s good performance off course or help a team steal a win despite underperforming.

It’s better to view contention through multiple lenses. The teams that have the most wins aren’t always the teams most thoroughly beating their opponents. If you order the MLB standings by run differential instead of W’s and L’s, the outcome is most illuminating.

MLB standings: Divisional standings ordered by run differential

AL East

1. Tampa Bay Rays (+107)
2. Baltimore Orioles (+40)
3. New York Yankees (+32)
4. Toronto Blue Jays (+24)
5. Boston Red Sox (+11)

This is perfectly in line with the regular standings. The Rays are comfortably in the driver’s seat, the Orioles remain in strong runner-up position, and the Yankees recently put some space between themselves and the Blue Jays.

AL Central 

1. Minnesota Twins (+39)
2. Cleveland Guardians (-33)
3. Detroit Tigers (-51)
4. Chicago White Sox (-55)
5. Kansas City Royals (-71)

Yikes… The Twins are surprisingly high in the overall run differential standings (No. 7) despite barely scraping together an above-.500 record at 25-24. Minnesota could be due for some more close-game wins in the weeks to come. As for the rest of the division, yeah. Not great, Bob.

AL West

1. Texas Rangers (+111)
2. Houston Astros (+42)
3. Seattle Mariners (+28)
4. Los Angeles Angels (+12)
5. Oakland Athletics (-178)

The Angels (27-23) currently sit above the Mariners (24-24) in the real standings. Seattle is another team that seems to be underperforming relative to its ability to stack up runs. Meanwhile, the Angels fandom should be on high alert if close games start breaking the other direction.

NL East

1. Atlanta Braves (+54)
2. New York Mets (-19)
3. Washington Nationals (-24)
4. Philadelphia Phillies (-32)
5. Miami Marlins (-57)

Another division with a clear frontrunner and several underperforming teams. The Phillies just made the World Series — what’s up there? Trea Turner and Kyle Schwarber continue to slump their way through the early season. We are approaching the point where the narrative shifts from “there’s still time” to “why is this team not good anymore?”

NL Central

1. Chicago Cubs (+26)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (+20)
3. Pittsburgh Pirates (+14)
4. Milwaukee Brewers (-6)
5. Cincinnati Reds (-45)

A weird one! The Milwaukee Brewers are in first place at 26-22. The Pirates are right behind at 25-23, then the division drops off… at least in the win column. Both the Cubs (21-26) and the Cards (22-28) are below .500, and yet both teams have a significant positive run differential. The lesson? Chicago and St. Louis are probably much better than the standings suggest.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (+57)
2. Arizona Diamondbacks (+16)
3. San Diego Padres (-5)
4. San Francisco Giants (-14)
5. Colorado Rockies (-43)

The Giants are currently 2.0 games up on the Padres, but that falls within the margin for error with this kind of comparison. The Diamondbacks are treading water in second place and the Dodgers are very clearly the team to beat in the NL West — maybe even the entire National League.

MLB standings: American League standings ordered by run differential

1. Texas Rangers (+111)
2. Tampa Bay Rays (+107)
3. Houston Astros (+42)
4. Baltimore Orioles (+40)
5. Minnesota Twins (+39)
6. New York Yankees (+32)
7. Seattle Mariners (+28)
8. Toronto Blue Jays (+24)
9. Los Angeles Angels (+12)
10. Boston Red Sox (+11)
11. Cleveland Guardians (-33)
12. Detroit Tigers (-51)
13. Chicago White Sox (-55)
14. Kansas City Royals (-71)
15. Oakland Athletics (-178)

The Texas Rangers continue to surge in both the real standings and the run differential standings. Just last week Tampa was on top, but Texas has won seven of its last 10 and is still several games short of its expected win-loss record, according to MLB.com. The Rangers certainly feel like a real threat to topple the Rays atop the American League.

Meanwhile, the AL East division stands tall above the rest. All five teams are above .500 and in the early playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the two Texas teams — the Rangers and the Astros — are the primary contenders from the AL West, with the third-place Angels also in the hunt.

The Twins are a team to watch. They have a comfortable lead in the AL Central and appear to be playing below their means as a collective. Even so, one has to imagine the East or West will ultimately represent the American League in the World Series.

MLB standings: National League standings ordered by run differential

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (+57)
2. Atlanta Braves (+54)
3. Chicago Cubs (+26)
4. St. Louis Cardinals (+20)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (+16)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (+14)
7. San Diego Padres (-5)
8. Milwaukee Brewers (-6)
9. San Francisco Giants (-14)
10. New York Mets (-19)
11. Washington Nationals (-24)
12. Philadelphia Phillies (-32)
13. Colorado Rockies (-43)
14. Cincinnati Reds (-45)
15. Miami Marlins (-57)

It is again worth reiterating that the Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals are both below .500 for the season. Both teams are on the verge of taking very different trajectories too: Chicago is embroiled in meltdown trade rumors, while St. Louis is quietly resurgent after a slow start to the season.

The Dodgers and Braves are clear frontrunners in the National League, which appears much weaker than the American League at first glance — both at the top and in the middle. The AL has more outlier stinkers at the bottom, but the NL is short on genuine threats to overcome Atlanta and Los Angeles.