Braves: Is Marcell Ozuna back to stay, or is May fool’s gold?

Marcell Ozuna has rebounded from a miserable 2022 and start to the 2023 season to dominate in May. But can the Braves count on that moving forward?

The last time that the Atlanta Braves used Marcell Ozuna in April came on the 26th when he went 1-for-4 against the Marlins. That completed an absolute disastrous first month of the season for the outfielder/DH who had become a headache-inducing presence in Cobb County in which he slashed .085/.194/.203 through the end of April.

Everything has changed in May, though, as the Braves slugger has emerged from a years-long hibernation of sorts.

Since the calendar turned over, Ozuna has been on an absolute tear, slashing .338/.404/.713 for the month with nine home runs, three doubles and 20 RBI. Legitimately, he’s been one of the best bats in the lineup throughout May, which is obviously saying quite a lot when it comes to the Braves.

For the season as a whole now, Ozuna is hitting .230 with a .811 OPS and 0.4 WAR. But the question in Atlanta isn’t if he’s been great in May — it’s if this is the Ozuna we can expect to see for the rest of the season, or if he’s due to revert back to near-unplayable form.

Braves: How sustainable is Marcell Ozuna’s resurgence in May?

Let’s be clear that expecting Ozuna to post a 1.117 OPS like he has in May for the rest of the season is highly unlikely. It’s also unlikely that he becomes fully the legitimate NL MVP candidate he was in 2020, his first season with the Braves. Having said that, the underlying numbers suggest that Ozuna has fixed a lot of what has plagued him over the past two seasons in Atlanta.

For starters, per Baseball Savant, Ozuna currently has a 14.7% barrel rate this season, which would be the second-highest mark of his career, only behind that 2020 campaign. More importantly, though, a dive into how he’s going after opposing pitchers suggests that he’s drastically changed his approach, clearly for the better.

Ozuna is simply approaching at-bats smarter. Not only has he stopped trying to pull everything with a recent uptick in opposite field hits, but he’s also being more disciplined. His chase rate has dropped an astonishing 5.5% from last season. Coupling that with a slightly decrease in average launch angle that has resulted in a 5.3% decrease in pop-up rate from last year, Ozuna is putting more balls in play than before, which is obviously working out, while also not giving away strikes.

Though this isn’t statistically backed, his recent beef with Dodgers catcher Will Smith also feels notable. That’s the type of fire from The Big Bear that has been lacking over his struggles the past couple of seasons, so to see him battle and jaw with an opposing catcher also speaks to his confidence.

Again, what Ozuna has done for the Braves in May shouldn’t be the new standard. However, all signs indicate that the player who every fan wanted to DFA before April or, at the very least, replace sooner rather than later is gone. And now we should see a more reliable power-hitting option in the lineup, which only makes Atlanta more of a World Series contender.