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Fever vs. Sun prediction and odds for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

By Peter Dewey

Sep 11, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas (25) reacts during the third quarter against the Las Vegas Aces in game one of the 2022 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 11, 2022; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Connecticut Sun forward Alyssa Thomas (25) reacts during the third quarter against the Las Vegas Aces in game one of the 2022 WNBA Finals at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports /
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For the second time in the 2023 WNBA season, the Connecticut Sun and Indiana Fever will face off, this time at Mohegan Sun Arena in Connecticut.

The Sun took the season opener against Indiana, 70-61, in what was a low-scoring rock fight. The Sun are adjusting to life without Jonquel Jones, but they have a solid team centered around DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.

The Fever, who were by far the worst team in the WNBA last season, are hopeful that No. 1 overall pick Aliyah Boston (14.3 points, 6.7 rebounds per game) can turn around the franchise this season.

Let’s dive into the odds and my best bet for this Commissioner’s Cup game on Tuesday night:

Fever vs. Sun odds, spread and total

Fever vs. Sun prediction and pick

The Sun are heavily favored in this game after winning by nine in the season opener, but I’m not sold on laying the points with Connecticut in this game.

The Sun are shooting just 37.6 percent from the field as a team, ranking eighth in the league in offensive rating so far this season.

This season is likely going to be about the team hanging its hat on the defensive end of the floor, where it ranks fifth in defensive rating.

However, with the addition of Boston, the Fever are a solid defensive team so far this season as well, ranking sixth in the league. Indiana’s offense (11th in ORTG) has not been great, but I think that gives value to the total in this game.

Connecticut wants to slow the game down, playing at the slowest pace in the WNBA this season, and it has gone under this total in three of its four games.

Neither of these offenses has been efficient, so a lack of possessions should make it much tougher for this game to go OVER. Remember, the first matchup between these teams had just 131 combined points!

Back the defenses of these squads on Tuesday night with this inflated total.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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