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Padres vs. Marlins prediction and odds for Tuesday, May 30 (Trust Alcantara on Tuesday)

By Reed Wallach

May 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports
May 24, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Sandy Alcantara (22) delivers a pitch in the fourth inning against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: John Leyba-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres start a three game series on Tuesday in Miami with the home team trying to get the best out of its reigning Cy Young winner.

Sandy Alcantara has taken a serious step back in 2023, but will hope to find his footing against a Padres lineup that has been incredibly underwhelming this season at the plate despite a high payroll. Will the Marlins ace get on track, or will it be San Diego’s offense that begins to live up to its preseason aspirations?

Here are the odds for the series opener in Miami:

Padres vs. Marlins odds, run line and total

Padres vs. Marlins prediction and pick

Alcantara has taken a significant step back this season with a 4.86 ERA, but his numbers look very similar to last season actually, he’s just on the wrong side of some batted ball variance. His ERA is up from 2.28 to 4.86 this season, but he has as many strike outs as he did last season (about eight per nine innings) with about one more walk per nine innings. He has been generating less ground ball contact (down from 53% to 45% this season) which has resulted in a few more home runs.

However, Alcantara has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.81, hinting that some positive regression is on the horizon. Maybe San Diego is the matchup for him.

The Padres have the second worst batting average in Major League Baseball this season, hitting just .221. While the team is elite at drawing walks (tops in MLB), Alcantara has pinpoint control for the most part, even if its down year over year.

Meanwhile, the Marlins offense has been better this year than the last several, top five in batting average against left handed pitching. That’s impactful on Tuesday against lefty Ryan Weathers. The southpaw has allowed four earned runs in each of his last two starts and it won’t get any easier against Miami’s set of bats.

I see a pitching and hitting advantage for the Marlins, I’ll trust them as small home favorites.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.