Stat head: Advanced metrics and basic numbers clash with Kyle Schwarber

Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber continues to hit homers… but he’s not doing much else. 

The Philadelphia Phillies entered the season with sky-high expectations. The reigning World Series runner-ups have completely fallen short of those expectations so far, currently sitting four games below .500 and in fourth place in the NL East.

Bryce Harper’s early-season absence was a factor, but he’s back now and the team still isn’t winning. Trea Turner was the marquee free agent signing of the summer and he looks utterly lost with his new team.

Another source of disappointment has been Kyle Schwarber.

The stats tell incongruent stories for Philadelphia Phillies’ Kyle Schwarber

Schwarer has, on the surface, done what he is paid to do: hit dingers. The Phillies’ left fielder has 13 home runs in 229 plate appearances. Projecting forward, he’s on track to hit 40 by season’s end. But dig just below the surface, and the numbers are much, much uglier.

In 229 plate appearances, with 13 home runs, Schwarber only has 31 total hits. Almost half of Schwarber’s hits this season have gone over the fence, which would be an awesome trend if he were just able to make contact on a regular basis. But Schwarber has struck out 67 times already and his batting average is .166 — not exactly in line with MVP expectations.

A cursory check of the advanced numbers shows that Schwarber has a WAR of -0.7 — he is quite literally playing below replacement level right now.

The Phillies need a spark in the biggest of ways. With Trea Turner struggling in his own right and the pitching staff falling well short of expectations, it’s starting to feel like last season may have been a flash in the pan for the Harper-era Phils. There’s still time to turn the ship around — last season was evidence of that — but it’s hard to imagine this team competing if an offensive cornerstone like Schwarber can’t get on base.