Guardians vs. Twins prediction and odds for Sunday, June 4 (How to bet on Triston McKenzie’s season debut)

The Guardians have hung around in the American League Central race, and now bolster its rotation with the return of one of the team’s best pitcher with Triston McKenzie set to make his season debut.

After being shut down just before the season due to a strain in his right teres muscle, McKenzie has been activated ahead of Sunday’s game against the Twins. Minnesota leads the AL Central, ahead of the Guardians by four-and-a-half games, and will start its ace Joe Ryan.

Can McKenzie get off to a strong start and go toe-to-toe with an AL Cy Young candidate? Here are the odds:

Guardians vs. Twins odds, run line and total

Guardians vs. Twins prediction and pick

McKenzie has punched out nearly 10 batters per nine innings in his three big league seasons, a key metric heading into his first start of the year as no team strikes out more than the Twins in 2023, over 26%. The team is about a league average offense with its ability to hit for power, but is bottom 10 in batting average with a .234 mark.

Minnesota has pushed to the top of the division in most part because of its fine pitching, led by Ryan. The second year pro is pitching to a 2.77 ERA while striking out nearly six batters for every walk dished out. He draws a far less potent offense in the Guardians that hits for a similar mark as the Twins (.235) but doesn’t put runners in scoring position very often, 28th in runs scored this season.

Even if McKenzie is on a strict pitch count, he will hand the ball to the second best bullpen in the big leagues in terms of ERA (3.08), so I expect Cleveland to keep scoring to a minimum on the mound. However, Ryan and the Twins pitching staff should be more than equipped to shutdown the Guardians lineup, Minnesota’s pen is not too far behind in terms of ERA with a 3.53, the sixth best mark in baseball.

I’m bullish on McKenzie’s ability to get off to a good start this year, but can’t trust the Guardians lineup to hold up its end of the bargain. I’ll go with the under on Sunday afternoon.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.