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Sky vs. Liberty prediction and odds for WNBA Commissioner’s Cup

By Reed Wallach

May 19, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) stands on the court against the Washington Mystics at Entertainment & Sports Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
May 19, 2023; Washington, District of Columbia, USA; New York Liberty guard Sabrina Ionescu (20) stands on the court against the Washington Mystics at Entertainment & Sports Arena. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Sky and Liberty meet for the second time this weekend in the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup after the Liberty squeaked out a 77-76 win on the road. However, this game is at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.

Chicago enters as big underdogs once again in this one, but the team’s stout defense kept a lid on one of the most talented rosters in the WNBA. New York’s offense is just scratching the surface as it looks to acclimate to a host of new talented players like Breana Stewart, but is this the spot for the team to break out on that side of the ball?

Let’s break down the odds and share a best bet:

Sky vs. Liberty odds, spread and total

Sky vs. Liberty prediction and pick

The Sky offense had its best offensive performance of the season on Friday night, hitting 11-of-19 shots from beyond the arc. This is an offense that has struggled through the first handful of games this season, posting an effective field goal percentage of 46% and the WNBA’s lowest offensive rating, per WNBA.com. 

Despite the outlier shooting performance from Chicago, the game still finished under the total of 159.

I see some significant regression on Sunday from beyond the arc, but the Sky should still put together a strong defensive effort. The Liberty have the firepower on offense, but the team is fourth in offensive rating, off the team’s high ceiling.

Further, Chicago can limit the possessions in this game with the leagues second best rebounding percentage. The Sky won the rebounding battle by 10 in Friday’s game in hopes of making this into more of a half court battle, the team’s more preferred style; Chicago is bottom half of the league in pace.

There’s still some growing pains for the Liberty on offense, so I’ll wait and see before I trust the star-studded team to have a monster effort against the league’s third best defense in Chicago.

The total adjusted down a two-and-a-half points following Friday’s under, but I’ll back on another under on Sunday afternoon.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.