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Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and odds for Men’s French Open Quarterfinals

By Reed Wallach

May 28, 2023; Paris, France; Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) celebrates winning his first round match against Jiri Vesely (CZE) on day one at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
May 28, 2023; Paris, France; Stefanos Tsitsipas (GRE) celebrates winning his first round match against Jiri Vesely (CZE) on day one at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports /
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The No. 1 player in the world Carlos Alcaraz looks to continue onto his first French Open semifinals against No. 5 Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has made a final at Roland-Garros before.

Alcaraz has dropped one set in the 2023 French Open and enters as an overwhelming favorite against Tsitsipas, who is playing at an elite level at the grand slam, also only dropping one set en route to the quarters.

Can the current best player in the world justify his lofty price tag and win his fifth straight time against Tsitsipas, or will the Greek No. 5 player get his first win over the phenom?

Here are the odds for the marquee matchup of the French Open to date:

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, spread and total

Moneyline: 

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas: +375
  • Carlos Alcaraz: -500

Spread: 

  • Stefanos Tsitsipas: +6.5 (-130)
  • Carlos Alcaraz: -6.5 (-102)

Total: 

  • 35.5 (Over -118/Under -110)

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Carlos Alcaraz prediction and pick

Alcaraz has won all four matches between the two, but they have been competitive affairs. The two played five sets at the U.S. Open in 2021, the breakout performance of Alcaraz’s career, and Tsitsipas forced a third set on clay in Barcelona last year.

The No. 5 player in the world has been in fine form on clay this season, 17-4 while holding nearly 86% of his games on serve. He has always enjoyed elite clay play, but will go up against the best player in the world Alcaraz, who is 24-2 on this year while breaking 38% of opponents service games.

It’s going to be imperative for Tsitsipas to hold serve considering Alcaraz’s relentless physical presence on the court, and I believe he can force at least one tiebreak, where he is 4-1 on clay this year. For what it’s worth Alcaraz is 2-3 in tiebreaks.

The Greek born player will be game on Tuesday, but I’m not confident I’ll call for the outright upset. Instead, I’ll play the over in hopes that Tsitsipas can take a set or drag three sets into deep water.

PICK: OVER 35.5 Games (-118)

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.