Predicting the contract Austin Reaves signs in free agency

After a breakout season for the Los Angeles Lakers, Austin Reaves is about to get paid this summer. The big questions are how much and by whom?

Austin Reaves was one of the biggest values in the entire NBA last season. He appeared in 62 games for the Lakers, making 22 starts and averaging 13.0 points, 3.4 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game, shooting 52.9 percent from the field and 39.8 percent from beyond the arc. In the postseason, those averages jumped to 16.9 points, 4.6 assists and 4.4 rebounds, with an astronomical 44.3 percentage on 3-pointers.

And for all that, Reaves made about $1.5 million on the second year of a converted two-way contract.

Reaves will be a restricted free agent this offseason and he’s obviously in line for a big raise. The Lakers would love to keep him and will have the opportunity to match any offer he receives. But can they afford to keep him?

How much will Austin Reaves make on his next contract?

Under the CBA, the max that the Lakers can offer Reaves is a four-year, $51 million deal. He will almost certainly get a more lucrative offer and force them to match, however, some other financial rules limit how much teams can offer him.

As Bleacher Report’s Eric Pincus explained, Reaves falls under what’s known as the “Arenas Rule” in the current CBA which means, “the most another team can offer in starting salary is the non-taxpayer mid-level exception, which projects to be $11.4 million for 2023-24.”

That first-year salary is capped and the second is only subject to a five percent raise but a team can offer the max over the final two years, making a total package of four years and $98 million the ceiling. However, fitting that deal in would be complicated because a team would need the space to accommodate a roughly $36 million cap hit for Reaves in the final two years of the deal.

According to Stephen Noh of Sporting News, just eight teams have the room to try and out-bid the Lakers for Reaves this summer: Hornets, Jazz, Magic, Pacers, Pistons, Rockets, Spurs and Thunder. Of those, the Magic, Thunder and Rockets might make the most sense but it’s not clear at this point, especially with Reaves’ stated interest in returning to the Lakers and L.A.’s stated intention of matching any deal.

Given all that, I’d expect someone in that group to offer him roughly four years and $80 million, with the Lakers ultimately matching and keeping him.

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