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Twins vs. Rays prediction and odds for Wednesday, June 7

By Reed Wallach

Jun 1, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws to the Cleveland Guardians in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 1, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez (49) throws to the Cleveland Guardians in the first inning at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Minnesota Twins lost the first of three games in Tampa Bay on Tuesday, 7-0, how will the AL Central leading team respond on Wednesday evening?

Minnesota will hope Pablo Lopez can get the team back on track against MLB’s best team the Rays on Wednesday. Lopez has had an up-and-down this season in his first season with the Twins, and will need to find his early season form against a dangerous Tampa Bay lineup.

Meanwhile, the Rays offense will look to cover for the team’s bullpen that will lean on opener Cooper Crisswell, who has struggled in limited action this season.

How should we bet this one? Let’s take a look at the odds:

Twins vs. Rays odds, run line and total

Twins vs. Rays prediction and pick

Lopez is a prime regression candidate, who has an xERA that is more than a run lower than his actual ERA, 4.54 vs. 3.44. Lopez has been getting crushed by the long ball this season, allowing a career high 1.26 home run per nine innings, but his strikeout numbers are also at a high at nearly 11 K/9.

The Rays bolster the most power of any team this season, but I lean towards Lopez’s underlying metrics to keep runs to a minimum with his ability to work out of jams (70% of runners have been left on base).

Now, can the Twins outduel the Rays offense? While Criswell will pitch around the order no more than once before giving the ball to Tampa Bay’s bullpen that is bottom 10 in ERA as a unit, I don’t trust Minnesota’s offense.

The Twins have the sixth lowest batting average and strikeout at the highest rate in baseball. I believe the team’s inability to get the ball in play is going to plague them from pulling an upset on Wednesday.

I can’t trust Minnesota’s offense, but I do believe Lopez is in line for a strong start despite the tough matchup. I’ll back the under on Wednesday.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.