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Alexander Zverev vs. Casper Ruud prediction and odds for Men’s French Open semifinals

By Reed Wallach

Jun 7 2023; Paris, France; Alexander Zverev (GER) reacts during a match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ARG) on day 11 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 7 2023; Paris, France; Alexander Zverev (GER) reacts during a match against Tomas Martin Etcheverry (ARG) on day 11 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports /
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Alexander Zverev looks to reach his first ever French Open final on Friday evening against Casper Ruud.

Both men have been to a grand slam final, Ruud has made two, including the 2022 French Open finals, while Zverev suffered a gruesome foot injury in the semi finals last year against Rafael Nadal. Both men have something to prove entering this match and the oddsmakers aren’t taking much of a stance with near-pick ’em odds.

The two men have never met on this surface, but Zverev has taken two of the three (not including a walk-over from Ruud in 2021). How should we handicap this semifinals matchup? First, the odds:

Alexander Zverev vs. Casper Ruud odds, spread and total

Moneyline: 

  • Alexander Zverev: -118
  • Casper Ruud: -102

Spread: 

  • Alexander Zverev: -0.5 (-114)
  • Casper Ruud: +0.5 (-114)

Total: 

  • 38.5 (OVER -120/UNDER -110)

Alexander Zverev vs. Casper Ruud prediction and pick

While Zverev’s ranking isn’t as high as Ruud, the ceiling of the No. 27 is higher. After missing part of the past year due to the aforementioned foot injury, Zverev has returned to the clay swing in fantastic form. He is 13-5 while breaking opponent’s serves on nearly 32% of service games. Zverev has a blistering serve, so generating break point opportunities against Ruud will be critical, who is only breaking serve about 25% of opponent’s service games.

We saw some shaky play from Ruud during this run to the semis, including a low quality match against Holger Rune. While the four set score line looks impressive on the surface, Rune’s 47 unforced errors played a role, including his poor work at the net (winning 28/43 points). Rune made life easy for Ruud, but Zverev’s massive first serve is going to shorten points and put far more pressure on the Norwegian to hit winners, something that hasn’t been his calling card during this grand slam.

I’m going to lean on Zverev’s big first serve to get ahead on the score line and to cash in on Ruud’s lack of explosiveness on the court to advance to his first Roland-Garros final after two straight semifinals appearances.

PICK: Alexander Zverev (-118)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.