Projecting Draymond Green contract extension this summer

What kind of contract can Draymond Green expect from the Golden State Warriors in free agency? 

The Golden State Warriors organization finds itself in a precarious position. Bob Myers, orchestrator of the greatest basketball dynasty of the last decade, is no longer with the front office. Now the remaining group must pick up the pieces after a disappointing season that ended with a second-round elimination to the No. 7 seed Lakers.

Draymond Green represents the Warriors’ biggest offseason obstacle. He’s due for a contract extension and has the option to opt out of his $27.6 million player option for 2023-24. Golden State has already shelled out hefty contracts to Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, and Andrew Wiggins. With the new CBA further complicating the logistics of such an expensive roster, how much can Golden State really afford to pay Green? And, conversely, how much can he demand?

The two sides definitely want to stay together. Green has spent his entire career in Golden State since 2012, when he was drafted with the No. 35 pick. Four All-Stars and four championships later, the respect is mutual. It’s only a matter of the two sides settling on the same details.

What will Draymond Green’s contract extension with Golden State Warriors look like?

Green averaged 8.5 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game last season. Maybe those numbers don’t pop off the page, but Green’s value has always been rooted in the intangibles. His communication and leadership skills are invaluable to the Warriors’ chemistry on and off the court. He quarterbacks the defense, sets up the offense, and half the time he plays coach on the sideline. Golden State simply cannot afford to let Green walk out the door for nothing — it would immediately vanquish any lingering title aspirations.

That said, the new CBA does mean the Warriors will incur heavy financial penalties no matter how much Draymond is paid. From Anthony Slater and Shams Charania of the Athletic:

"“Controlling owner Joe Lacob must green light all financial choices. He has shown to be uneasy in the past about letting the total salary and tax bill sky past $400 million. If everyone is retained, including Green, who has a $27.6 million player option, it’ll stretch significantly beyond that.”"

Despite that disconcerting fact, the report states that the Warriors “intend” to discuss a new multi-year contract with the 33-year-old. Green can either opt-in and hammer out an extension or opt-out and sign an entirely new deal.

To further complicate matters, Jordan Poole’s new extension kicks in next season at slightly over $27 million. Klay Thompson is also extension-eligible entering the final year of his contract, worth over $43 million next season. If the Warriors keep Green and Poole, they will vault over the luxury tax line and be unable to use the midlevel exception in free agency or reap other financial benefits. Could Green’s extension coincide with Poole getting traded?

Either way, one has to imagine Green is looking at significant money. This is, in all likelihood, his final opportunity to secure a long, lucrative contract before he’s (further) past his prime.

Green was not quite in peak form last season and the Warriors’ financial crunch could mean he’s willing to concede a hometown discount. The teams with enough cap space to offer Green a full max in free agency are generally not looking to contend next season. Golden State probably won’t dish out $30+ million per season for Green at this stage in his career, but perhaps something milder — like four years, $100 million — is enough to seal the deal.

The Warriors could entice Green with a lower annual average but more guaranteed years on his contract. The idea of paying Green $25 million in his age-37 season is not particularly comforting, but it could help keep the books semi-reasonable in the present while Golden State ramps up for one or two more playoff runs with the current core. If the Warriors are less inclined to give Green long-term money, that could necessitate a higher annual average.