Braves: Setting realistic expectations for AJ Smith-Shawver’s first start

AJ Smith-Shawver, who started the season in Single-A, is making his first MLB start with the Braves on Friday. But what should fans expect?

Just a couple of months ago, AJ Smith-Shawver was an exciting Atlanta Braves prospect taking the mound for Single-A Rome. On Friday, June 9, he’ll take the hill at Truist Park for his first major league start after making his debut less than a week prior in a relief outing.

Much has been made of Smith-Shawver’s exceedingly rapid ascension through the Braves system, and rightfully so. But now he gets his first start at a time when Atlanta is still searching to fill the final spot in the rotation with Max Fried and Kyle Wright still on the IL.

In his debut out of the bullpen, the 20-year-old hurled 2.1 hitless innings, allowing just one walk while striking out three, making way for the eventual Eddie Rosario game-winning grand slam. He looked good overall, without question.

However, looking at his MLB debut ahead of his first start, what should we expect to see from AJ Smith-Shawver as he takes the ball for the Braves to begin the series against the Nationals?

Braves: Realistic expectations for AJ Smith-Shawver in first start

Though Smith-Shawver struck out three of the eight batters he faced in his first MLB outing, don’t expect to see a whole lot of that in his first start. He didn’t shy away from contact in his relief appearance but the away-breaking movement on the fastball didn’t allow for much hard contact, if any.

The big key for success in the first start for the 20-year-old could be improving the placement of the slider from his debut apperance. His Baseball Savant chart shows that he left roughly half of the 13 sliders he threw in that outing in the middle or top of the zone, which could be problematic. Luckily, it didn’t cost him against Arizona, but in a starting role, that’s something that needs to be corrected with more breaking pitches out of the zone or, at the very least, more on the corners and in the bottom of the zone.

More importantly than all of this, we probably shouldn’t expect a long outing from Smith-Shawver against Washington. Even in Triple-A, he didn’t experience a number of lengthy starts and, given the way Brian Snitker has typically managed young starters, he’ll likely only want to see him two times through the order at most before handing the game off to the bullpen.

Working in the favor of Smith-Shawver is the simple fact that the Braves are facing the Nationals, a team that ranks in the bottom-third of MLB in most offensive metrics and has not made a lot of hard contact overall or consistently this season.

All told, the expectations should be relatively high still. Smith-Shawver delivered in relief in a big spot and was nails in the minor leagues this season. Even with his unprecedented rise to the majors, he seems to be the goods. And while we might not be expecting prime-deGrom on the hill by any means, all the signs point to him delivering a solid first audition to potentially earn the fifth starter role for now.