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Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek prediction and odds for Women’s French Open Finals

By Reed Wallach

Jun 8 2023; Paris,France; Iga Swiatek (POL) returns a shot during her semi final match agains Beatriz Haddad Maia (BRA) on day 12 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 8 2023; Paris,France; Iga Swiatek (POL) returns a shot during her semi final match agains Beatriz Haddad Maia (BRA) on day 12 at Stade Roland-Garros. Mandatory Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports /
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Karolina Muchova stunned Australian Open champion Aryna Sabalenka in the semifinals to advance to her first ever grand slam final in the 2023 French Open against the dominant Iga Swiatek.

The three-time grand slam champion Swiatek will look to win her third French Open on Saturday at Roland-Garros. Swiatek hasn’t dropped a set this tournament and is the overwhelming favorite to win once again against the surprise entrant Muchova, who entered the tournament ranked No. 43 in the world.

Here are the odds for the women’s French Open final:

Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek odds, spread and total

Moneyline: 

  • Kaolina Muchova: +610
  • Iga Swiatek: -950

Spread:

  • Karolina Muchova: +5.5 (+110)
  • Iga Swiatek: -5.5 (-146)

Total: 

19.5 (Over -104/Under -130)

Karolina Muchova vs. Iga Swiatek prediction and pick

Swiatek hasn’t been tested this tournament, and I expect her to overwhelm Muchova, who needed over three hours and two tiebreaks to get past a grand slam champ in Sabalenka.

Muchova had a long lay off at the end of 2023 to recover from an abdominal injury and now is back at a high level, but I believe her lack of fitness may be tested against Swiatek, who has been in plenty of high level grand slam matches, making the semifinals or better in three of the last four slams.

Further, I like Swiatek to be at her best after facing seven break points against Beatriz Haddad Maia in the semifinals, including going behind a break in each set before winning 6-2, 7-6(7). Her being slightly tested during the course of the match is a nice tune-up for this finals match.

The experience is a factor, as is the fitness of each player, and there’s no better player on clay over the past three years than Swiatek. This should be a routine victory for the Polish No. 1 player in the world.

Instead of taking Swiatek on the game spread, it’s cheaper to play under total games in hopes of Swiatek controlling each set.

PICK: UNDER 19.5 (-130)

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.