NBA free agency predictions: Who signs the biggest restricted free agents?

NBA free agency prediction: Who will sign Austin Reaves?

The Lakers felt dead in the water before Austin Reaves’ emergence as a legitimate third banana offensively. The former undrafted free agent, in only his second NBA season, appeared in 64 regular season games for LA. He started 22, most of them late in the season once the Lakers realized what they had.

Reaves averaged 13.0 points and 3.4 assists while shooting a shade below 40 percent from deep. He is the ideal LeBron James complement on the perimeter — a confident three-point bomber who can beat closeouts, attack rotating defenders, and relieve some of the playmaking pressure on James’ shoulders. Reaves’ unique ability to get all the way to the rim and consistently draw fouls, despite limited burst and athleticism, made him a real headache for defenses.

He’s also an active defender who’s especially disruptive roaming in passing lanes and generating pressure as a helper. He’s extremely smart and absolutely relentless. He makes the right plays and he makes the effort plays, which translated to high-level postseason basketball. There have already been arguments that Reaves deserves somewhere in the same ballpark as Jordan Poole, who signed a four-year, $128 million extension with Golden State last summer. Reaves is definitely better than Poole.

Now, whether a team will actually shell out that much money is another matter entirely. Poole’s contract hasn’t aged particularly well and they’re different players. Poole has more perceived upside tied to his herky-jerky, quick-twitch athleticism and dynamic movement shooting ability. He also won the championship with Golden State. The Lakers came up short.

That said, Reaves will get his bag. A strong fit is San Antonio. The Spurs need help on the perimeter and could be willing to spend big to accelerate their rebuild with Victor Wembanyama on board. Reaves can take over playmaking duties alongside Devin Vassell in the backcourt while cementing San Antonio as a real team to watch in the West.

Prediction: Spurs offer sheet — four years, $90 million