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Braves vs. Tigers prediction and odds for Tuesday, June 13

By Josh Yourish

Jun 8, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 8, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (99) pitches against the New York Mets during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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Maybe Spencer Strider isn’t the best pitcher in baseball. Last time he took the mound he certainly didn’t look like it. Strider went 4.0 innings and allowed eight runs on eight hits which ballooned his ERA from 2.97 to 3.79. He will be on the mound for the Atlanta Braves today against the Detroit Tigers.

Detroit will counter with rookie Reese Olson who is 0-1 with a 2.70 ERA in two starts. Let’s take a look at the odds for this interleague matchup as the Tigers are big underdogs at home to Atlanta and Strider.

Braves vs. Tigers odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Tigers prediction and pick

Every pitch is going to get shelled from time to time and that happened to Strider against the Mets last start. I don’t think it’s going to happen again for a very long time. His expected ERA is still 2.87 which is 88th percentile in baseball and that’s along with a 99th percentile strikeout rate, a 97th percentile whiff rate, and a 93rd percentile expected batting average.

Comparing this year to last year, his fastball has been less effective. It is down over a mile per hour on average and is allowing a .413 expected slugging. Strider is now throwing his heater, 7% less and last season that was a pitch that he threw 67% of the time and had a run value of -20 for the season. Those may seem like small differences, but it’s not nothing, Strider isn’t quite as good as he was a rookie last season, or hitters, like the Mets in the division, are just more familiar.

The Detroit Tigers though, are not familiar with Strider at all. Detroit has never faced him, so things are only getting tougher for an offense that is struggling immensely in the month of June, ever since Riley Greene went out with an injury.

Besides just having Strider on the mound, the Braves have maybe the best lineup in the National League, so let’s back them to win big in Game 2 of this three-game series.

Pick: Braves Run Line (-150)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change