5 biggest warning signs for an NBA Draft bust

By Jakob Ashlin | Jun 13, 2023

Henry Ellenson (Marquette) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number eighteen overall pick to the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the 2016 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

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Stanley Johnson (Arizona) greets NBA commissioner Adam Silver after being selected as the number eight overall pick to the Detroit Pistons in the first round of the 2015 NBA Draft at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /

Biggest warning signs for an NBA Draft bust: 3. Raw with 3-and-D potential

If you look back at past NBA Drafts, there is an odd trend. Lottery picks, who fall into the “raw prospect with 3-and-D potential” archetype, tend to underperform. Isaac Okoro, Cam Reddish, Jonathan Isaac, Josh Jackson, and Stanley Johnson are some examples.

Successful wing lottery picks tend to be more NBA-ready (Brandon Ingram, Jayson Tatum, Mikal Bridges).

It is not a guarantee that this trend will continue, but the recent results are noteworthy. When a team drafts a prospect that is labeled as “raw” or “needs time to develop,” there is an inherent risk in making that call, and lately, it has not paid off.

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