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Braves vs. Phillies prediction and odds for Thursday, June 22

By Josh Yourish

Jun 11, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder (55) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 11, 2023; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Bryce Elder (55) pitches against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports /
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Today, in the finale of this NL East series, the first place Atlanta Braves will hand the ball to Bryce Elder against Taijuan Walker and the third place Philadelphia Phillies. Can the Braves extend their division lead over the rest of the East against Philadelphia in Game 3?

In his 14 starts for the Braves this season, Elder is 5-1 with a 2.60 ERA and Walker is 7-3 with a 4.31 ERA in 15 starts for Philadelphia. The Braves are favorites on the road in this afternoon start. Let’s take a look at the odds.

Braves vs. Phillies odds, run line and total

Braves vs. Phillies prediction and pick

The Braves have gotten some great production out of Bryce Elder this season, but in June he’s been much worse. This month he has an ERA of 5.19 with a 5.30 FIP, only 6.75 strikeouts per nine innings and has given up four home runs in those three starts. The wheels are starting to fall off and it was only a matter of time because he carried an ERA under two for much of the season while his FIP has consistently been about a run and a half higher.

In June the Braves have been the best hitting team in baseball with a team OPS nearly 100 points higher than the second place Texas Rangers. I’m not worried about the Braves being able to score on Taijuan Walker despite the fantastic month that he’s having. Walker has only given up four earned runs all month with two of his four starts being scoreless outings. The last time he faced Atlanta the Braves got 10 hits over 6.2 innings, but only came away with three runs. Walker only had one strikeout in that start.

To recap, I think Elder is going to keep struggling until water finds its level in terms of his ERA, but I also think the Atlanta hitters will give him significant run support to hang around in this game. All that leads us right to the over in this one, so that’ll be my pick.

Pick: Over 8.5 (-120)

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change