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Nationals vs. Mariners prediction and odds for Monday, June 26

By Josh Yourish

Jun 25, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a home run during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports
Jun 25, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) hits a home run during the second inning against the Baltimore Orioles at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Mandatory Credit: Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports /
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A trip to the east coast wasn’t great for the Seattle Mariners who dropped two straight series against the Yankees and the Orioles. Now, Seattle is 37-39 and back at home for a three-game series with the Washington Nationals. Washington was out west already and just took two of three from San Diego this weekend.

The Mariners are 9.5 games back in the NL West and need to get back over .500, so Luis Castillo taking the mound is good news for Game 1 of this series. Castillo is 4-6 with a 2.89 ERA in his 15 starts. He will be opposed by Trevor Williams making his 16th start and comes in with a 4.14 ERA and a record of 4-4.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the first matchup of this interleague series.

Nationals vs. Mariners odds, run line and total

Nationals vs. Mariners prediction and pick

The Seattle Mariners are 19th in run scored this month while Washington is 26th, but there’s a chance that this could be a high scoring affair. Trevor Williams went six scoreless last time out with just five hits, no walks and four strikeouts. That was his best start of the season, but I don’t think he can keep it up. His FIP is 5.16 and he has just 58 strikeouts in 76.0 innings of work. He also has issued 24 free passes and surrendered 14 home runs. He’s far from a dominant starter that can regularly shut down offenses, far from the guy that Luis Castillo has been most of the year.

Castillo though hasn’t been that guy either in his last two starts. Over his most recent 10.2 innings on the mound he has allowed five earned runs with 10 walks to nine strikeouts. He had only issued 17 walks all year prior to those two most recent outings. Castillo has given up five home runs in his last three starts and his FIP has climbed to 3.62 for the season.

I have serious concerns about the way that Seattle’s ace is pitching right now and compounded with my general lack of trust in Trevor Williams I’ll be taking the over tonight.

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change