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Sun vs. Aces prediction and odds for Saturday, July 1 (Trust Las Vegas at home)

By Peter Dewey

May 28, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum (10) dribbles the ball against the Minnesota Lynx during the third quarter at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports
May 28, 2023; Las Vegas, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Aces guard Kelsey Plum (10) dribbles the ball against the Minnesota Lynx during the third quarter at Michelob Ultra Arena. Mandatory Credit: Lucas Peltier-USA TODAY Sports /
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The Las Vegas Aces continue to run through the WNBA, moving to 14-1 on the season with a 17-point win over the New York Liberty in their last game.

The lone loss? Well it came to their opponent on Saturday, the Connecticut Sun, earlier this month at Mohegan Sun Arena. Connecticut won that matchup by 17 points, but the Aces have bounced back since, winning seven straight.

Unfortunately for the Sun, the team looks much different than it did back on June 8, as starting big Brionna Jones is out for the season with a torn Achilles.

That’s going to make it tough on Connecticut to defend A’ja Wilson down low, especially at home. The Aces have been money at home this season, winning all eight of their games and taking seven of those matchups by 13 or more points.

Here’s a look at the latest odds and my best bet for Saturday’s matinee matchup:

Sun vs. Aces odds, spread and total

Sun vs. Aces prediction and pick

At home, I have to bet the Aces to win and cover in this game.

New York is widely expected to be the second best team in the league – and it has the leading MVP candidate in Breanna Stewart – yet the Aces blew them out on Thursday night.

That’s going to spell trouble for the Sun, who lost by eight at home to the Liberty on Tuesday night. Now, Connecticut has to find a way to keep things close on the road down one of its best players?

I just don’t see it.

The Sun are third in the WNBA in offensive, defensive and net rating, but they’re considerably behind Las Vegas (+19.4) in net rating this season (Connecticut is +6.6).

The Sun lack a player who can take over on offense, especially if DeWanna Bonner doesn’t have it going from deep. Meanwhile, the Aces have a plethora of stars in Wilson, Kelsey Plum, Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray and Candace Parker.

Vegas is off to a historic start, and I expect it to keep winning big at home.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.