3M Open picks 2023: Expert picks, best bets for PGA Tour golf this week

3M Open picks and best bets at TPC Twin Cities this week as we have an outright, Top 10, One and Done, and more PGA Tour expert picks for golf.

Coming from Royal Liverpool to TPC Twin Cities is definitely quite the shock to the golf fan’s system, but that’s where we’re heading this week on the PGA Tour for the 3M Open in Minnesota for the tournament immediately after The Open Championship.

The 3M Open — and, as such, our 3M Open picks — is fascinating in the 2023 tournament. This is where Tony Finau finally broke into the winner’s circle a year ago en route to winning back-to-back tournaments. This year, we’re looking for Justin Thomas to try and just qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs with only two tournaments left before the playoffs begin at only 70 players. In addition, Cameron Young and others are trying to right the ship while players like Ludvig Aberg, Eric Cole and others are trying to fully break through.

We’re coming into our 3M Open picks after a great week at The Open. Sure, we had a dead heat with Tommy Fleetwood for a Top 10 that killed the profit there, but we nailed a cheeky Top 30 parlay at +472. Oh yeah, we also had Brian Harman to win at +11000 as one of our dark horse picks, which pushed us to +10.45 units for the week at Hoylake.

Let’s take that energy into the PGA Tour expert picks for the 3M Open, starting with a Top 10, outright and One and Done pick before more of our best bets.

Note: All odds are courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook unless otherwise noted. Odds will be updated when made available. For more betting picks and advice, check out BetSided.

Golf betting record in 2023 through Open Championship: 44-122-2, +13.956 units (3-42 on outrights, 0.5 unit bets, 0.1 unit longshot bets | +10.45 units at The Open)
One-and-Done record in 2023: $8,653,050.65 (Robert Macintyre at The Open, $37,550)

PGA Tour expert picks for 3M Open: Winner, Top 10, One and Done

Top 10 Pick for the 3M Open: Sepp Straka (+290)

Sepp Straka is trending and, when everyone’s favorite Austrian from Georgia living in Alabama gets hot, he gets scorching. His last two starts are a win at the John Deere and then a T2 at The Open. While the travel worries me slightly, he’s gaining more than 2.0 strokes with his ball striking in those tournaments. For a guy who can rack up birdies at a ridiculous rate, I think he’s trending and will continue to make his case to be a European Ryder Cup pick this week.

Pick to Win the 3M Open (0.5 Units): Ludvig Aberg (+3000)

I don’t care, I don’t care, I don’t care. We’ve seen ball-striking dominate this event in its brief history with an emphasis on long drivers too on a couple of notable occasions. That’s the young Swede, Ludvig Aberg, to a T. Yes, he missed the cut in Scotland, but was T4 the week prior at the John Deere. I think his game is perfectly suited to dominate TPC Twin Cities and that he can rack up birdies all week for his first PGA Tour victory.

One and Done Pick for the 3M Open: Sepp Straka

We’re sticking with the trending Straka. Again, his heaters are not something to doubt and, while the whole 2022-23 season hasn’t been all that special, he’s playing at a high level of late that makes me think he’s going to finish well in this event.

3M Open picks and best bets

Peter Kuest to finish Top 20 (+410)

Peter Kuest has been a sneaky great player as of late, including finishing T17 at John Deere and T4 at Rocket Mortgage before getting another made cut last week at the off-field Barracuda. He’s a long hitter who has been gaining 1.30+ strokes ball striking over his last 20 measured rounds and has been putting well too. I think that fits the 3M Open perfectly and these odds for a Top 20 is impossible to ignore.

Sepp Straka, Ludvig Aberg and Gary Woodland to finish Top 20 (+1900, DraftKings)

This is an offer on DraftKings under the “Golfer Parlays” section and this number is too high for the ball striking in this trio. Woodland worries me, as he often does, with how disastrous his short game is, but at +1900, there’s going to be some risk and with full confidence in the first two players, I’m willing to make that bet on a player like Woodland who finished T11 here in 2021 and has been striking the ball so well all season long.

Greyson Sigg to finish Top 30 (+175, DraftKings)

Not only did Greyson Sigg finish T7 at TPC Twin Cities last year, but he also has a pair of Top 20 finishes in his last four starts with just one missed cut, which was on the number last week at the Barracuda. His ball striking, particularly with his irons, has been quite good, and he’s gaining over his last 16 rounds with the short game too. For a Top 30 in his form and with a good brief history at this tournament, I like the odds here.

Longshot pick to win the 3M Open (0.1 Units): Peter Kuest (+11000)

For every reason why we have Kuest for a Top 20, if he really pops this week, he’s worth a sprinkle as a longshot outright, especially with 100/1 odds on him in a field that is weak, especially in terms of the form for the best players in the field (and a little bit of travel lag, too).

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