Heat projected lineup and rotations heading into 2023-24 season
Miami Heat starting shooting guard: Tyler Herro
Tyler Herro has been a lightning rod for discourse because of the Damian Lillard news. As the centerpiece of any feasible Lillard trade, a lot has been said about Herro’s shortcomings and why the Blazers shouldn’t be interested. And yes, when he’s held up to the bright light of Damian Lillard, Herro wilts and fades.
That shouldn’t really inform the discourse around him as a player overall, of course. It’s possible to be a mid-tier or above-average starter without inviting constant criticism. Herro is a very talented offensive player and a staple of Miami’s halfcourt attack. The Heat managed a Finals run without Herro, but one has to imagine Spoelstra would’ve jumped at the opportunity to bring Herro back into the fold if it was possible.
The Kentucky product averaged 20.1 points and 4.2 assists on 56.6 TS% last season. It was his first season in the starting five and he acclimated well. Miami is desperately short on reliable 3-point shooters; Herro is a genuinely elite volume shooter who can get to his shot in myriad different ways. His comfort on or off the ball makes him a crucial weapon in Spoelstra’s offensive arsenal.
Of course Miami would trade Herro for Lillard in a heartbeat. And sure, his four-year, $120 million contract is a lot to stomach. But the Heat are undoubtedly thrilled to have Herro in the organization and he will continue to play a prominent role for however long he’s with the team, be it one more week or the next four years. The defense is a continual roadblock, but Herro is too impactful offensively to be disrespected.
Primary backup shooting guard: Duncan Robinson
To state it plainly, Duncan Robinson’s 2022-23 regular season was a disaster. He shot 32.8 percent from deep and 37.7 percent from the field. For a player who derives almost all of his value from his jumper, that simply won’t cut it. Robinson is already a severe defensive liability who can get played off the floor in key matchups. If the 3s aren’t falling, he’s a stark negative.
Of course, he experienced the same cosmic boost that everyone on the Heat roster did in the playoffs. All of a sudden, Robinson was a productive crunch-time presence for the Eastern Conference champs. He was back to his old ways and then some, carving up defenses with his off-ball movement and burying a steady dose of 3s.
If that Robinson can return for the regular season, he’s going to see plenty of minutes. He used to start over Herro at shooting guard, lest we forget. But, if Robinson comes back in regular season form, he could lose his spot to more well-rounded options.
Other players who could receive minutes at shooting guard: Josh Richardson, Jaime Jaquez Jr.
Josh Richardson should get a steady dose of minutes. He was considered a foundational piece of Miami’s future not all that long ago. He has regressed in the years since, but Erik Spoelstra is a practitioner of basketball voodoo and he, if nobody else, is capable of getting the most out of Richardson’s specific skill set.
The Heat will want Richardson to focus primarily on spot-up 3s and defense. He’s a dogged on-ball defender who can really muck up passing lanes with his length. At his peak, Richardson was one of the best guard defenders in the entire NBA. His utility in Miami will depend on his consistency from 3-point range and the reliability of his offensive decision-making.