Justin Verlander contract, explained: Mets save the Astros from a disastrously poor financial move

Justin Verlander has a wrinkle in the form of a vesting year that could come back to haunt the Houston Astros if his performance decline is precipitous.

Justin Verlander is now back on the Houston Astros after a tiny little stint that almost none of us will remember with the New York Mets after a few years. The Mets have now traded aces Max Scherzer and Verlander this season and firmly put themselves in retool zone.

Meanwhile, the Astros bring back Verlander, who they would have loved to have re-signed this winter, but instead saw him sign with the New York Mets. Verlander, clearly, wants to come back as well because he needed to waive his no-trade clause to make the deal happen.

Now, however, the Astros will presumably pick the bill up on the contract the Mets procured with Verlander. While that puts them on the hook for sure in 2024, 2025 also comes with a wrinkle that could really hinder the Astros ability to maintain financial flexibility in the near future.

Justin Verlander’s 2025 contract has a vesting year, what is that?

Verlander’s contract for this year comes in at $43 million. Next year, he’s due that same $43 million.

The contract, reported as two years, has an often unrecognized third year in 2025 if Verlander vests. A vesting clause is when a player can trigger another year on a contract if they reach a conditional performance threshold.

Verlander’s 2025 year is for $35 million. The condition is for Verlander to pitch 140 innings in 2024. That’s a little over 23 games of six innings. While it may be a high level for an aging pitcher, it’s entirely feasible that a starting pitcher reaches that many innings in a season.

Mets give Astros a monster of a financial deal on Justin Verlander trade

After the deal went down, more information came out about how that contract and the interesting third year of it will be handled financially.

According to Bob Nightengale, the Mets will send the Astros $54 million if the final year of his contract does, in fact, vest. That’s a huge win for the Astros who will now come out ahead, and the Astros are only paying $29 million for the next two-plus seasons.

The Mets have proven they have all the money in the world, once again. Cool guys, we get it, you’re rich enough to afford to pay for your own mistakes, and also securitize the moves for other teams.