J.T. Poston lost $260K on one shot: He doesn’t deserve your criticism

J.T. Poston’s decision to attempt a last-gasp eagle turned into a triple bogey, costing him $260K. Fans were split into whether his decision was correct.

Coming off the heels of an uninspired Open Championship, the 3M Open proved even more devoid of drama as Lee Hodges won wire-to-wire — leading after every round and winning by seven strokes.

The victory was exciting for Hodges, his first in his 65th attempt on Tour. Yet by the end of the match, much of the Twittersphere was left talking about his playing partner, J.T. Poston.

Poston and Hodges were on the final hole, with Hodges holding a three-stroke lead. The only chance for Poston to win (by means of first forcing a playoff) was to make eagle and have Hodges make bogey.

The ideal scenario for Poston was highly unlikely, especially considering that Hodges had already birdied this hole in each previous attempt. But if Poston was truly playing to win — Hello, Herm Edwards — then he needed to stick his second shot on the green.

In a vacuum, the 213 yards left to the green shouldn’t seem undaunting. The issue was the ball position. Poston’s drive had barely stayed in play (even crossing the red lateral hazard line) and he faced the dreaded sidehill below-the-feet lie. Poston had no choice but to take his medicine and let ‘er rip.

His shot rocketed out on a low trajectory and while valiantly trying to grace the runway, the ball crash-landed, bouncing among the greenside rocks, popping up and into the water.

The shot led to a blowup hole and after Poston pushed a makeable six-footer; he finished the hole with a triple bogey.

Here’s where the internet got in a tizzy.

If Poston doesn’t attempt to land the green from his difficult lie or he remains aggressive but from a water-avoidant route, he’ll finish for the solo lead in 2nd and win $850K. Yet because Poston — who only needed a 7 to finish second outright — carded an 8, he finished T2 to win $590K.

Through an ill-fated decision, J.T. Poston lost $260K.

Now, $260K might seem like a lot of money to just “give away”, but that’s assuming the figure of $260K was part of Poston’s calculation. In his post-round interview, Poston reiterated his thinking twofold. 1. Landing it on the green in two gave him the only chance to win, and 2. He’s not here for second place.

It’s an interesting dilemma involving psychology and economics. Where improbability (.00001%) trumps impossibility (0%). I can see both sides to this argument where it seems like the second Poston dumped his ball in the water, he dumped $260K alongside.

But Poston didn’t “lose” $260K on one shot. In that same respect, he was trying to “gain” $554K.  Furthermore, you can use the perspective from both a birdseye view, acknowledging he had 71 other holes to gain ground on Hodges. If you choose to myopically focus on hole number 72 – you can look to his missed 6-footer as his chance to remain solo second.

I love that some of the outcry is about the money lost for Poston’s team, including his caddie Aaron Fleener, as some tweets have mimicked a Helen Lovejoy-esque plea for help “Won’t someone please think of the caddie!”

But Poston isn’t thinking about hedging money. He has done well for himself with $14 million in career earnings and unless you’re still scraping on the PGA Tour, you’re probably not thinking about a financial delta between 2 and T2. Poston wanted his third PGA win and if people are so up-in-arms about his $260K triple bogey, then they’ve forgotten the root behind the phrase win-at-all-costs.