Anyone complaining about a lack of drama in the 2025 NCAA Tournament was very quiet on Saturday night as the second-ever Final Four with all No. 1 seeds delivered in spades. Walter Clayton's historic star turn helped the Gators rally in the second half to take down Auburn while Houston pulled off a historic comeback to stun Duke in the night cap.
While some CBS executives are probably pulling their hair out at the missed opportunity of seeing the Blue Devils play for a title, the stage is set for an awesome game between the Cougars and Gators. There should be a sea of red at the Alamodome, which is just a three-hour drive from Houston's campus, but Florida has shown throughout the NCAA Tournament that they aren't afraid of taking on adversity in the biggest moments.
A favorable crowd helps Houston set the tempo
As we predicted prior to the Duke-Houston matchup, slowing a team down is much easier than speeding them up. The Cougars' rugged defense forced the Blue Devils to run deliberate offensive sets and chew up clock, limiting possessions and keeping them within shouting distance to pull off a March Madness miracle.
While there were plenty of Houston fans in the building on Saturday night, the crowd should be even more pro-Houston on Monday night as their fans gobble up tickets that fans of Duke and Auburn sell. Kelvin Sampson's team will feed off the energy that the partisan crowd provides and lock in on the defensive end, turning this game against the Gators into a defensive showdown.
Florida likes to get moving on offense and play fast, but Houston is great at preventing transition opportunities. As a result, Florida will need to rely more on its half-court offense to score points, playing the game at Houston's speed rather than the other way around.
The winner won't score more than 70 points
While much ado has been made about Houston's defense, which held Duke's mighty offense without a field goal for the final ten and a half minutes on Saturday night, Florida is no slouch on the defensive end either. The Gators turned up the defensive intensity in the second half against Auburn, forcing a slew of turnovers that helped them come back in a game where they trailed by eight at the break.
Houston has been content to play at a slower pace to control higher-octane offenses, scoring 62, 69 and 70 points in wins over Purdue, Tennessee and Duke to reach the title game. Florida has been more explosive, registering at least 77 points in all five of their March Madness wins, but they have not played a team as deliberate and rugged defensively as the Cougars yet.
Oddsmakers have been very conservative with their point totals, projecting the game's over/under at 140.5 points, meaning they expect a game in the 60's. Trust the bookies on this one and expect a very physical title game that will be closer to the low 60's than a high 70's track meet.
Walter Clayton channels Mario Chalmers
The last time all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four in San Antonio, the title game went to overtime thanks to a last-second shot from Kansas' Mario Chalmers to tie the game. The player most likely to step into Chalmers' shoes is Clayton, who has put the Gators on his back to help them get to the brink of their first title since 2007.
There are fewer stories more emblematic of the magic of March than Clayton's, which began as a zero-star recruit under Rick Pitino at Iona after opting to play basketball despite having multiple football scholarship offers from powerhouses like Georgia, Notre Dame and Florida State. A 2022-23 MAAC Player of the Year award helped Clayton become an attractive transfer portal candidate for the Gators, who snatched him up and have reaped the benefits ever since.
The story of the 2025 NCAA Tournament appears to be the coming out party for Clayton, who has delivered big shots late in Florida's wins over UConn Texas Tech and Auburn. The stage is set for Clayton to have his One Shining Moment by delivering a game-winning shot at the end to help the Gators win the national championship.