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Way-too-early 2026 NFL Mock Draft: Arch Manning isn't saving Jets, Saints, Colts and Steelers in QB market

Arch Manning isn't in our way-too-early 2026 NFL Mock Draft because
Texas QB Arch Manning
Texas QB Arch Manning | Tim Warner/GettyImages

With one NFL Draft in the books, the next draft season starts. The 2026 NFL Draft is a year away at this point, but it's time to get our first real look at who the top prospects in the class are, what teams could potentially need after the upcoming season, and so on. However, what I already feel confident (as confident as you can be a year out) is that any team trying to proverbially tank for Arch Manning are going to end up sorely disappointed.

ESPN insider Adam Schefter alluded to the idea that there's no guarantee that Arch Manning, the nephew of Peyton and Eli, will enter the 2026 NFL Draft. That confirms what I've long believed. Experience is valued more than ever in the NFL at quarterback, so it wouldn't behoove Manning to turn pro after just one season as the Longhorns starter. Furthermore, when you look back, Peyton stayed four years at Tennessee, Eli was at Ole Miss for five years including a redshirt year. The Manning Family knows the process and Arch undoubtedly has that in his hear.

So if teams aren't gunning for Arch Manning, then which players are they going to have eyes for? Let's dive into the way-too-early 2026 NFL Mock Draft. It is indeed far too early to say any of this with any confidence about the prospects with a full college season to play, but we need a baseline, and this is it.

Note: Draft order is determined by Super Bowl odds on FanDuel Sportsbook. Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

2026 NFL Mock Draft: Way-too-early first-round predictions

2026 NFL Draft Order

Selection

1. New York Jets

QB Garrett Nussmeier, LSU

2. New Orleans Saints

QB Cade Klubnik, Clemson

3. New York Giants

S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

4. Tennessee Titans

OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

5. Cleveland Browns

DL Peter Woods, Clemson

6. Carolina Panthers

CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

7. Las Vegas Raiders

EDGE T.J. Parker, Clemson

8. Indianapolis Colts

QB Drew Allar, Penn State

9. Cleveland Browns (via JAX)

OT Spencer Fano, Utah

10. New England Patriots

OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami

11. Atlanta Falcons

WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

12. Seattle Seahawks

LB Anthony Hill Jr., Texas

13. Miami Dolphins

CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson

14. Dallas Cowboys

WR Eric Singleton Jr., Auburn

15. Arizona Cardinals

OT Gennings Dunker, Iowa

16. Pittsburgh Steelers

QB Sam Leavitt, Arizona State

17. Chicago Bears

RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

18. Denver Broncos

WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State

20. Houston Texans

IOL Jake Slaughter, Florida

21. Minnesota Vikings

CB A.J. Harris, Penn State

22. Los Angeles Chargers

EDGE Rueben Bain Jr., Miami

23. San Francisco 49ers

IOL Ar'maj Reed-Adams, Texas A&M

24. Washington Commanders

DL Keldric Faulk, Auburn

25. Green Bay Packers

CB Malik Muhammad, Texas

26. Cincinnati Bengals

S Dillon Thieneman, Oregon

27. Los Angeles Rams

QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

28. Kansas City Chiefs

EDGE Tyreak Sapp, Florida

29. Detroit Lions

EDGE Mikail Kamara, Indiana

30. Buffalo Bills

WR Makai Lemon, USC

31. Baltimore Ravens

EDGE Joshua Josephs, Tennessee

32. Philadelphia Eagles

EDGE LT Overton, Alabama

No Arch Manning, still plenty of QBs

Even if teams like the New York Jets, New Orleans Saints, Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers won't have Manning in their crosshairs if he, in fact, doesn't enter the 2026 draft, the options are still far better than they were in 2025.

You're probably going to grow extremely tired of my love for Garrett Nussmeier, but man this kid has special talent. Yes, he's got some Brett Favre-esque gunslinger mentality in his game. That's something he'll likely need to dial back a bit. At the same time, he has a cannon of an arm, his pocket presence improved by leaps and bounds throughout the 2024 season at LSU, and he simply has a strong feel at every level of the field. The Jets could be set up if they are picking No. 1 and take him.

Cade Klubnik is fascinating in his own right, going to the Saints in this spot because I think the Tyler Shough experiment is about to be a disaster. I was ready to be out on the Clemson product after 2023 but his 2024 season ultimately ended up pulling me back in. He has a big arm with good all-level accuracy and, if he continues to make strides, he posseses the tools to be a high-end NFL quarterback.

Drew Allar (Colts), Sam Leavitt (Steelers) and LaNorris Sellers (Rams) are all not where they need to be as NFL prospects. Having said that, they all also possess enormous potential. All three are good athletes, though Allar and Leavitt are well behind Sellers in that capacity, while they all also have nice arms that just need more work and polish. Still, the traits are there for all three players to bet on.

Caleb Downs: The No. 1 prospect in the 2026 NFL Draft?

It's not often that you see a safety being drafted in the Top 5 or considered by many to be the best player in a draft class. Not many safeties are Caleb Downs, however.

Downs came to Ohio State after starting his college career at Alabama in 2023 but left after Nick Saban's retirement. At both stops, though, we've witnessed a dynamic playmaker in the secondary that can be a force multiplier for a defense. Need him to cover? He might be the best coverage safety in college football. Asking Downs to come down into the box against the run? His 6-foot, 205-pound frame shows up when he's coming downhill. If that wasn't enough, he's also one of the best returners in the sport and can also cover in the slot.

Where NFL teams feel comfortable taking Downs will be fascinating to see because of the positional value. In terms of mastery of his position, though, no one projected to be in the 2026 NFL Draft class displays that in the way that the Ohio State safety does.

2026 NFL Draft prospects I'm planting an early flag on

DL Peter Woods, Clemson

I'm not exactly going out on a limb here with Peter Woods but, man, do I love this kid. When you have a guy who comes in at 6-foot-3, 315 pounds but has the speed, burst and power to play on the edge at a high level while also being a beast on the interior, it's hard to look away. He's a throwback to the elite Clemson defenses of old and is the anchor for that group while also potentially entering the NFL at just a hair over 21 years old. He might be Calias Campbell reincarnate (or perhaps, as crazy as it may sound, even better).

WR Eric Singleton Jr., Auburn

College football fans know Eric Singleton Jr. but, after transferring from Georgia Tech to Auburn this offseason, I firmly believe he's about to come a household name. Singleton is an absolute freak athlete with track speed and, while he doesn't have the biggest frame at 5-foot-11, 190 pounds, he has enough mass to go with his speed, quickness and explosiveness to make him a home-run threat at every level of the field. I love what he could bring to an NFL offense, the Cowboys in this mock draft.

QB LaNorris Sellers, South Carolina

LaNorris Sellers is my early favorite to win the 2025 Heisman Trophy for the Gamecocks. First and foremost, the quarterback is just a monster when he takes off and uses his legs. Just ask Clemson and Texas A&M about that as he almost singlehandedly beat them on the ground (16-166-2 against Clemson, 15-106-1 agains A&M). However, Sellers made strides as a passer that we saw throughout the year. There's still more room to improve, especially with consistency. There's also a chance Sellers could return to South Carolina and be in the 2027 draft class. Whenever he comes out, though, I'm all in on the bespectacled assassin at quarterback.

EDGE Dani Dennis-Sutton, Penn State

Stop me if you've heard this before, but Penn State might have another stud on the edge. Dani Dennis-Sutton elected to return to Happy Valley instead of entering the 2025 draft, and that's why I'm really projecting a breakout season from him. He's polished as a pass rusher with a sturdy, muscular frame at 272 pounds. There have been questions about his athleticism but if there's one program I trust to improve that, it's the Nittany Lions. Now the focal point of the defense, I expect a big year from Dennis-Sutton.

RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

Especially coming out of the stellar 2025 running back class, I've got to give Jeremiyah Love some, well, love. Had he been draft eligible this year, the Notre Dame star would probably have edged out Omarion Hampton as RB2. He's that damn good. He has breakaway speed, even if that's not his greatest asset, but can show that off with his ability to forced missed tackles. Love is shifty, explosive and quick in short areas to get an angle and take off against a defense. He might be the only first-round pick at running back next year, but he'll be absolutely worth it.